Power Rankings after Round 21, highlights, every club ranked, analysis, ladder, predictions, finals contenders

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

For the first time in months, there’s a new team at the top of the rankings, while the top four hegemony has finally been broken with three weeks until the finals.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. MELBOURNE (14-6, 125.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Recent premiers have shown the secret to success is finding form at the back end of the season, but Melbourne themselves proved why it’s important last year, too. As has been well-covered, after their 10-0 start they lost more games than they won, including a straight sets finals exit – holding onto a top-two position based on past results which weren’t too reflective of their true talent level by the time September rolled around. This time we wouldn’t exactly say they’re surging, given they were four goals down to a woeful North Melbourne side at quarter-time, but they’ve still won five in a row; none of the other top-four teams have even won three of their last four. The Harry Petty injury hurts more than it should based on name value, because it finally seemed like they’d cracked something in their forward mix; we’ll see if it really hurts them over the next three weeks. The Blues, and the Swans in Round 24, will be tough – but a top-two spot, and even the minor premiership if everything goes right, are still on offer.

Next game: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday night

2. COLLINGWOOD (16-4, 128%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

We’ve mentioned this for a few weeks now, but the results are making the rest of the AFL world aware – these Magpies aren’t the same as the ones we saw early in the season. In the last six weeks, they rank 11th in the AFL for contested possessions, 10th for clearances, 10th for ball movement and 7th for ball movement against. They’re playing like a mid-table side, and are a trademark late comeback away from sitting on a three-game losing streak. There’s even a realistic scenario where they lose to the Cats this weekend, then Brisbane a week later, and drop as low as third to miss a home qualifying final. We think that’s unlikely, and still have faith in Craig McRae in his coaching staff to fix what’s ailing them. But from the No.1 seed with a bullet, to the No.1 by default, to dropping out of No.1 completely – an exciting and unpredictable September looms.

Next game: Geelong at the MCG, Friday night

3. BRISBANE LIONS (14-6, 124.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Can an absence build a Rising Star case? The Lions certainly feel a little off since losing Will Ashcroft to injury, and while they escaped a frisky Fremantle side with the win, what looked two weeks ago like a golden opportunity for them to surge into September instead sees them looking a bit shaky. Thankfully, everyone else looks shaky too. With two more games at the Gabba to come, which won’t be easy but you’d still expect they win – because they always do – their season may come down to next week’s trip to face Collingwood at Marvel Stadium. The Magpies are gettable, particularly at that ground, and a win could lock up a top-two spot and home qualifying final for Chris Fagan’s men. Big moments to come.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba, Saturday twilight

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4. CARLTON (11-8-1, 117.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

Just eight weeks ago, the Blues were 15th in the Power Rankings (and also the ladder, but who cares about that). They haven’t lost since, and with Port Adelaide’s slide continuing, they’ve even become the first team to crack the Pies-Port-Dees-Lions top four hegemony in some time. One more win should break their decade-long finals drought (though two would make sure of it), and at this point, you have to consider Carlton a threat to make a preliminary final. After all, if the ailing Power are likely to finish fourth, whoever finishes fifth could get a golden opportunity to knock them out in straight sets in the semis. It’d still be a tough away trip, but you’d have to say it’s doable. We might be getting a bit far ahead of ourselves here but this is the territory the Blues now occupy – the dreamland of ‘well if THIS happens and then THIS happens then they can go THIS far…’. It’s also the territory we thought they’d occupy at the start of the season (since we tipped the Blues to finish fourth), for what it’s worth.

Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday night

5. PORT ADELAIDE (14-6, 108.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

Right now, the Power are the cursed yoghurt from The Simpsons. They nearly beat Geelong with something like a third of their team out injured or sick. That’s good! But they lost. That’s bad. They’re still pretty safe in the top four, and it was only a couple of weeks ago they should’ve beaten Collingwood. That’s good! But they’re pretty clearly the favourites for fourth now, meaning an away qualifying final and likely an away preliminary final if they get there. That’s bad. These things can change very quickly, and perhaps Port get things together and even recover to regain second – after all the Demons and Lions have harder fixtures in the next three weeks. And really, the best thing we can say for the Power’s chances is that nobody seems to be that great. Collingwood’s flaws have become more apparent, Brisbane only recently lost to Gold Coast, Melbourne is still shaky even while winning, and the three all copped pretty bad injury blows recently (Nick Daicos, Will Ashcroft and Harry Petty, three men who’s never been grouped together before this).

Next game: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

6. GEELONG (10-9-1, 119.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

It wasn’t the most convincing win on Saturday night, given the injuries the Power were dealing with, but the Cats somewhat made up for their disappointing loss to the Dockers by simply getting the job done. They get Collingwood at a very interesting time, with the ladder leaders clearly weaker than they’ve been for a while – not just because of a couple of losses, but because of their underlying numbers which suggest they’re declining… and of course they won’t have Nick Daicos. But Geelong isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. At the very least we have to stop calling them the best chance of winning the flag from outside the top four now… remarkably, that’s now Carlton. (Jeez, what a thought.) We think they’re still good enough to win two of their last three and sneak into September, but our confidence has been reduced in recent weeks, and it’s certainly going to be a nervy period.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday night

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-9, 109%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

Marcus Bontempelli deserves a Brownlow Medal. He’s the best player in the AFL, and while it’s unfortunate he may win one because of an injury (to Nick Daicos), they all count the same on your resume when you head into the Hall of Fame. Which is where he’s headed. Bontempelli, plus two men who should be his All-Australian teammates this year in Tom Liberatore and Tim English, should now lead his side into another finals series – assuming they don’t fall into the same pothole they did two years ago by losing to Hawthorn in Launceston. That time it cost them a top-four spot (though they made the Grand Final anyway); this time it would be much worse.

Next game: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Sunday early

8. SYDNEY SWANS (10-9-1, 111.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

It’s worth pointing out the Swans were fortunate on Saturday night. Anyone who watched the game knows they kicked remarkably straight, and Champion Data’s expected score figures have borne that out; while Sydney actually won 96-85, they ‘should’ have lot 74-86. In a way, that’s just their luck turning, given their narrow defeat to the Giants earlier this season, plus the Power, Tigers and Saints losses. And either way, it puts them in a surprising position to sneak into the eight, which would be even more remarkable than Carlton’s rise from the bottom four; we were writing off the Swans a month ago after the aforementioned loss to Richmond. They still need to beat at least one of Adelaide (away) or Melbourne, plus take care of business against Gold Coast, but the possibility exists.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at the SCG, Saturday early

9. GWS GIANTS (11-9, 101.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

We don’t love moving the Giants down this far, but the Cats and Bulldogs deserved to move up, and the Swans did beat them – even if they did require some excellent goalkicking to do it. They’re still right in the mix, but their winning streak was due to end at some point, and they’re now right back amongst the pack of sides fighting for the final spots in the eight. There’s every chance they capitalise on a wounded Port Adelaide this weekend and nearly clinch a spot in September; there’s also every chance they lose, given it’s still a very tricky away trip, and need to knock off both Essendon and Carlton to make the eight. We’re not sure if it’s a positive they’ve been placed in the final game of Round 24 – they’ll know exactly what they need and where they can finish by the time the game begins, but that just adds to the pressure.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

10. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-10, 117.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

Are the Crows the contender absolutely nobody’s talking about? In a way, yes – they can do about as much damage in a finals series as most of the sides above them can. If they sneak into eighth, and pull an elimination final upset, there’s even a chance they get a semi-final Showdown – in which case they can definitely make a prelim. But that half-a-win gap between themselves and Geelong and Sydney is so big, especially when they have to play at the Gabba this weekend. Lose, as almost every team does up there, and you’re facing a best-case scenario of sneaking into the eight on 12 wins (which would require other teams falling over). But win and the possibilities seriously open up, with even a home elimination final possible. Based on all of that, is this the biggest game Adelaide has played in… years?

Next game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday twilight

11. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

A bad run of injuries heading into and during Friday night’s game limited the Tigers’ chances of a season-saving win, and in the end their midfield was belted off the park. In previous seasons they didn’t need to win that area to be successful; this year, they do, and Dion Prestia and Tim Taranto couldn’t carry the team by themselves. The AFL clearly has a bit of faith in Richmond yet, giving them a Sunday game in Round 24 – and if they beat the Saints and Kangaroos over the next fortnight, they should still be playing for a spot in September. But from here, pretty much everything has to go right, and it’s very rare teams in that scenario actually get everything they want.

Next game: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

12. ESSENDON (10-10, 98.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

What did we say last week? Ah yes: “they’ll beat West Coast and North Melbourne, one of them coming a bit too close for comfort, and sit 11-10.” On the plus side that means they should beat the Kangaroos properly, after nearly dropping what would’ve been an absolutely horrific loss to the Eagles. The Bombers still aren’t playing finals unless they beat at least one of GWS or Collingwood, and probably both. So the AFL putting their clash with the Magpies on the Friday night of Round 24 will at least allow Dons fans to move into the optimism of the trade period a couple of days early. Oh boy, Ben McKay!

Next game: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday early

13. FREMANTLE (8-12, 89.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

After Sunday’s tight loss to the Lions, Lachie Neale said the Dockers were “the best 15th-placed side I’ve ever played against”, and we think that’s fair enough. In fact whichever team finishes in the bottom four from here – probably either Fremantle or Gold Coast – will clearly be better than that position suggests. The ladder can lie in very different ways, and this year, it’s making the gaps between the broad middle class seem larger than they are. A strong fortnight doesn’t make up for a broadly disappointing season though, with the Dockers losing by 39-plus points against the teams currently sitting 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 11th – it’s those performances they need to eliminate next year to return to the finals.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Saturday night

14. ST KILDA (11-9, 104.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

For a while there, the Saints almost made us look very silly indeed for having them this low. But their midfield was demolished in the second half against the Blues, and with a week’s hindsight, kicking nine goals in a quarter was more about Hawthorn’s defence being porous than St Kilda figuring anything out. Especially when they only kicked eight goals for the game on Sunday. Their defence should be good enough to keep them in their next two games at Marvel, against the Tigers and Cats, but is their offence good enough to win them? With Brisbane at the Gabba in the final round, they likely need to win both to play finals. It just seems a bit unlikely.

Next game: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

15. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-11, 93.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

They probably got closer to Adelaide than we would’ve expected, and so being 15th might be a bit harsh – but as we partially explained in the Freo section, it’s harsh for any team this year. The Suns couldn’t back up their brilliant upset of Brisbane, and so they’re down in the ‘kinda sorta still a chance to make the eight if they win out, but they’re effectively done with one more loss’ category… which is at least a step forwards compared to some recent seasons? Though really, when you look at their percentage – 102.8 last year, 93.8 right now – it’s still a frustrating year.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Saturday early

16. HAWTHORN (6-14, 80.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

Unfortunately for the Hawks, the gap between them and the sides above them is just too big to warrant them moving up a spot – despite their super-impressive win over Collingwood. After all, Gold Coast did beat Brisbane a week ago, and the Hawks have had much lower lows this season than most. But still – it was a bloody good victory. The midfield continues to look incredibly promising, they’re fun to watch, the pressure was intense… and as fans, days like that – where you’re not expecting anything and your team goes beyond your wildest hopes – are infrequent to say the least. We hope you enjoyed it.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium, Sunday early

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-18, 52.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

We suspect Eagles fans are in one of two camps – either ‘that was the perfect result, we played so well and deserved to win but just got a bit unlucky, and it means we should keep Pick 1’ or ‘damn it, I wanted to win’. Both are completely acceptable and understandable reactions! Perhaps the latter is healthier, and having a draft lottery would help a little bit, but has anyone actually looked at the NBA? Teams still tank for the best odds; being the absolute worst, and not just one of the worst, is still incentivised. It’s not some clear and easy fix.

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday night

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-18, 67.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

The start was great – the Kangaroos took advantage of Melbourne’s mistakes and looked to have a clear gameplan. But whether that was the Clarko effect or not, it pretty quickly wore off, with the Demons just slowly inching their way ahead and towards the expected victory. As we’ve been saying for a while, their coach’s absence has been a really unfortunate drag on this season, delaying what should’ve been a year of growth; perhaps these last three weeks can at least give them something to point to heading into 2024. And hey, if the Eagles keep playing like this, maybe they’ll even get Pick 1 without having to trade for it?

Next game: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Saturday early