Adelaide Crows season preview, pre-season analysis, predicted Round 1 team, ladder position, strength, weakness, latest news

Adelaide’s forward brigade is arguably its strongest across all three lines.

But it’s also central to one of the most intriguing talking points surrounding the Crows for not just this season, but for many years to come.

Veteran Taylor Walker continued to defy the odds last season, finishing second on the Coleman Medal table with a career-high 76 goals and earning a maiden All-Australian blazer in his 16th AFL season at the age of 33.

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Walker was pivotal to the Crows averaging a competition-high 95.3 points per game and subsequent sudden surge up the ladder, with the team falling one-and-a-half games short of an unlikely finals appearance — despite having the fourth-best percentage in the competition (116.8%).

Recruit Izak Rankine kicked 36 goals for the year, while sixth-year player Darcy Fogarty added a career-high 34 majors from a career-best 21 games.

Taken at Pick 12 in the 2017 draft, the 192cm Fogarty has taken time to establish himself at AFL level and only really got continuity in the last few years.

For triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo, the time has come for Fogarty, who’s out of contract at the end of 2025, to take the Adelaide No. 1 forward mantle from Walker.

“That’s the key. You need this next person after Tex Walker to kick 50 goals,” Dal Santo told foxfooty.com.au.

“You think about some of the great centre half-forwards or key forwards in the competition. We always give them a few extra years because they’re a bit bigger and they take a little while to develop. But that development time is gone for Fogarty.

“You’ve had your grace period, so this is where you put it on them. If you’re going to make a career out of it and dominate this competition for five to 10 years, it starts now. Otherwise, if you’re an Adelaide supporter, you’re like: ‘Gee, we’ve invested in these young kids with first-round draft picks.’

“I think Darcy Fogarty is the best set-shot at goal technique-wise in the competition – and his accuracy might even replicate that – and he’s a beautiful field kick. But at what point? Otherwise you keep going: ‘Oh, maybe next year.’ Then it sort of becomes this idea of you get paid on potential, rather than the facts of you being a good key forward.”

Dal Santo said Walker shouldn’t have to adjust his on-field approach, nor should the Crows have to tweak his role, for Fogarty to have more influence in 2024.

“‘Tex’ wasn’t supposed to be the main man, but he kept on bloody kicking goals, even leading the Coleman Medal at one stage,” he said. “Like he wasn’t putting himself – and they weren’t structuring up – where he was the main man. He just did it.

“But there also needs to be a sharing of the workload. Fogarty should kick, minimum, 45 goals this year – that’s two goals a week. If he can’t have three to four shots at goal – and let’s say he goes at better than 50 per cent – there’s no way he shouldn’t kick under 45 goals this year.”

Dal Santo added that Riley Thilthorpe, who was drafted with Pick 2 in 2020, should be aiming to kick 30 goals in 2024 after managing 18 from 21 matches last year.

With 11 wins last season — including victories against Carlton, Brisbane and Port Adelaide — the Crows had their best season under coach Matthew Nicks, beating their previous best of eight last year despite having the third-youngest and second-least experienced list in the competition.

But they had ample losses away from home — and lots of close losses. In fact seven of the Crows’ 12 losses were by under three goals – and they were either in front of, or level with, their opponent in all but one of them. Three of their five single-figure margin losses were against top-four sides Brisbane at the Gabba (six points), Melbourne at the MCG (four) and Collingwood at the MCG (two). Nicks said after the Melbourne loss: “Execution in the end is what’s cost us the game.”

Dal Santo said making the finals should be well within Adelaide’s sights in 2024.

“I don’t think you’d be asking anything that they’re not capable of to, at least, play finals. I think that’s a fair challenge and expectation of this group – and we think they all should’ve last year, before the whole post situation,” he said.

“They ‘could’ve, should’ve’ anyway, so they should be able to replicate that.”

STRENGTH

Offence. The Crows last year were one of the most exciting teams to watch in the competition, finishing No. 1 in the competition for both points scored and scores per inside 50. They had six players kick at least 22 goals in a dynamic forward 50 set-up that caused headaches for a lot of opposition defences. The fact they were also among the top six teams for points from turnovers and time in forward half suggests Matthew Nicks has implemented a game plan that can bring them success in the future.

WEAKNESS

Defence and midfield. As good as the Crows were offensively last year, they weren’t strong defensively, ranking ninth for average points conceded (81.8) and, concerningly, 14th for points conceded from clearances. They traded up the draft order to acquire star WA defender Daniel Curtin in the top 10 and traded in Chris Burgess from Gold Coast, but with Tom Doedee moving to Brisbane and Fischer McAsey and Paul Seedsman both retiring last year, there’s question marks on the back group. Dal Santo said: “Do they have a rock-solid defence? Do they have enough big-bodied defenders? Have they got the ball use off half-back? I can see areas of growth. The best teams are allowing 66 to 68 points per game on average, so you’ve got to find a way to bring that down without compromising your ball use going the other way.”

PREMIERSHIP CLOCK

8pm: After exceeding so many experts’ pre-season expectations in 2023, the danger for the young Crows is they could take a step backwards next season in an ultra-competitive league. But Nicks has already established a sustainable game style with a young, exciting and stable list. After another pre-season, coupled with the heartbreak of losing so many close games in 2023, the Crows will be better prepared to stand up in clutch moments next season, especially away from home. If they’ve added more layers to their game plan and become a stronger defensive unit, the Crows should be a threat this year.

PREDICTED LADDER RANGE

6th-9th

PREDICTED ROUND 1 TEAM

B: Brodie Smith, Jordon Butts, Max Michalanney

HB: Wayne Milera, Daniel Curtin, Chayce Jones

C: Jake Soligo, Jordan Dawson, Mitch Hinge

HF: Ben Keays, Darcy Fogarty, Izak Rankine

F: Josh Rachele, Taylor Walker, Riley Thilthorpe

FOLL: Reilly O’Brien, Rory Laird, Matt Crouch

I/C: Luke Pedlar, Chris Burgess, Rory Sloane, Lachlan Murphy, Sam Berry (sub)