Fox Footy experts David King and Leigh Montagna have unveiled their final predicted top eights for the 2024 season – and the key reasons behind a few of their big calls.
Both men are backing Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda to return to September, the latter an unpopular view amongst both the AFL captains and Fox Footy’s experts more broadly.
But King is backing Sydney to hold its spot and the Western Bulldogs to replace Port Adelaide, while Montagna has Port Adelaide remaining plus Geelong replacing the Swans.
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WHY THE SWANS WILL STICK AROUND
Dual premiership Kangaroo King believes the Swans are being underrated by the AFL world because of how poorly they finished off games last year.
If games lasted just three quarters in 2023, Sydney would’ve actually finished above Collingwood, leading at the final change 17 times compared to the premiers’ 16 leads.
Yet on six occasions John Longmire’s side went on to lose or tie the game – against Port Adelaide (14pt lead to 2pt loss), GWS (12pt lead to 1pt loss), St Kilda (6pt lead to 14pt loss), Geelong (1pt lead to draw), Richmond (8pt lead to 13pt loss) and Melbourne (4pt lead to 21pt loss).
“So I think they’re a better team than what we give them credit for right now,” King said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“They add Brodie Grundy, it was the greatest free hit of all time from a list perspective. I mean, he’s walking in here, it costs a bit of money. There’s no doubt about that. But how many teams have had that caliber of ruckman walk into a team over the last 10 years? Not very many.
“So I think he has a huge impact on the clearance game, their contested numbers have always been pretty poor. And I think a good ruckman gives good supply, turns into a proactive footy team. That’s been the only gray area.
“They’ve got a whole host of 21-22 year old players that are becoming absolute top liners of our competition. Joey put Errol Gulden on the map really early last year, and to see what he did in the back half of you was remarkable.
“As soon as they get healthy with (Luke) Parker coming back into that team, and (Taylor) Adams who’s obviously there to win some hardball, they’ll come charging up the table.”
CONVERTING LEADS
Winning after leading at 3QT in 2023
Collingwood – 16 for 16
Carlton – 11 for 11
GWS Giants – 10 for 10
Brisbane Lions – 19 for 18 (1 loss)
Sydney Swans – 17 for 11 (5 losses and a draw)
Longmire backs Swans despite injury woes | 02:24
King also believes in the Western Bulldogs to deliver on their promise, shown by their 2021 Grand Final run but often missing during late-season fadeouts.
“When you look at last year, it did them a favor missing the eight. All warts were exposed. Everyone’s seen the Dogs, they’ve picked them apart. They’re too talented to miss the finals. We’re all saying that,” he said.
“I think their top four or five players need to take more control of this football club – Bontempelli does all of the heavy lifting. I love that they made (Tom) Liberatore vice captain, I think he has the Toby Greene-type effect. He’s a leader of that football club, call him one.
“If you’re leaving guys like Sam Darcy out of your lineup, then you’re putting the heat on those talls that are in to get the job done. And if they don’t, they get very, very nervous about what’s about to take their position.
“I think Ryley Sanders will be the Rising Star as most are saying now, I love the way he started this season. So I think there’s just too much talent at the Dogs and the coach has got a point to prove in ‘24.”
DAVID KING’S PREDICTED TOP 8
1. Collingwood
2. GWS Giants
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Sydney Swans
5. Carlton
6. St Kilda
7. Melbourne
8. Western Bulldogs
Hardwick prepares for battle with Tigers | 03:04
DEAD CAT BOUNCE? WHY YOU CAN’T COUNT OUT GEELONG
St Kilda great Montagna believes the Cats are a genuine top four chance in 2024, despite their historic slide from a flag all the way down to 12th last year.
He pointed to the stat, often discussed by Foxfooty.com.au, about one team a year making the leap from bottom 10 to top four – but took it a step further by looking at the types of teams who jumped up.
As it turns out, all but one were contenders a season or two before their poor campaign, meaning their move into the top four was more like a reversion to their true talent level than some major shock.
“I’m still bullish on Geelong. And I like looking at history, I think it’s a really important factor. And it’s been at least one team every year for the last nine years that has jumped from outside the eight into the top four – but eight of those nine teams have actually been a team that have played finals in recent years,” Montagna said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“It’s not an Adelaide Crows or a Gold Coast Suns that haven’t played it, Brisbane are the only team in that nine years that came from the bottom four and then spiked, every other team has played finals and played a good level of finals in recent years.
“So that limits it to the Bulldogs, Fremantle, Geelong. And I’ve just got faith in the Cats. I think that 2023 was a bit of an anomaly; they were banged up defensively, the (Esava) Ratugolea experiment didn’t work.
“They’ve had a big preseason, they’re fully fit. They believe they can challenge again, so I think that holds them in good stead. With those games at home, the forward line they’ve got the backline that they’ve got, and they’ll find a way to make it work in the midfield. I think that absolutely they should play finals.
LEIGH MONTAGNA’S PREDICTED TOP 8
1. Brisbane Lions
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. GWS Giants
5. Geelong
6. Carlton
7. Port Adelaide
8. St Kilda
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