Africa Cup of Nations: Last 16 predictions as Nigeria’s Super Eagles tipped to crash out

The Africa Cup of Nations has been a mesmerising and unpredictable affair so far, with shock results, no shortage of controversy and heavyweights crashing out — and that’s just the group stage.

89 goals were scored in this year’s opening round — 68 more than last time — and expect the excitement to continue as the knockouts begin.

Here are ESPN’s tie-by-tie predictions for the AFCON Round of 16.

Nigeria vs. Cameroon

One of two standout ties of the round, these two have a combined eight Nations Cup titles between them, but both are a shadow of the great generations of the past.

Nigeria performed above expectations in the group stage — overcoming an underwhelming draw with Equatorial Guinea to beat the Ivory Coast — while Cameroon left it late against Gambia, booking progression with two goals in the last three minutes.

Neither of these two are particularly well coached, with neither Jose Peseiro nor Rigobert Song seemingly able to get the best out of the talented individuals at their disposal, and don’t expect too much tactical innovation here.

There’s hope that Nigeria’s awesome offensive options — including Victor Osimhen — will click, but they required an own goal to defeat Guinea-Bissau, and have been disjointed going forward.

Cameroon, meanwhile, axed Andre Onana after a crushing 3-1 defeat by Senegal, with the likes of Karl Toko Ekambi and — particularly — Georges-Kevin N’koudou proving lively as Gambia were eliminated.

That ‘indomitable’ spirit that saw Cameroon past Algeria in World Cup qualification, and past Brazil in Qatar, may be enough to give this Lions side the edge, particularly with Vincent Aboubakar — Golden Boot winner at the last AFCON — in contention to return.

Winner: Cameroon

Guinea vs. Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea’s run in the tournament has been billed as a surprise, although observers of the National Thunder may not be as surprised considering their immense progress in recent years.

They held their own against Algeria at the last AFCON, went unbeaten through 2023, and have brought their fine recent form to the 2024 tournament.

Emilio Nsue, now back in an attacking role, and still going strong at 34, is currently the competition top scorer, while opponents Guinea have struggled to carry a threat.

Star striker Serhou Guirassy returned against Senegal, but was unable to impose himself, contributing to Guinea’s lack of a cutting edge, although it’s worth noting that Mohamed Bayo did hit the woodwork twice against Gambia.

Winner: Equatorial Guinea

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Angola vs. Namibia

Namibia won their first ever Nations Cup game when they stunned a hapless Tunisia side in their opener, but a 4-0 demolition by South Africa was perhaps a fairer reflection of their quality.

Nonetheless, they’ll be buoyed by their 0-0 draw with Mali which — with Tunisia failing to beat South Africa — was enough to see them through.

This is where their unprecedented run will end, however.

Angola have been another contributor to a strong Lusophone performance during the opening round, surpassing expectations by holding Algeria – despite falling behind – and seeing off Burkina Faso in their last group game.

A 3-2 victory over Mauritania exposed some defensive fragility, even though centreback Kialonda Gaspar has been an absolutely dominant aerial presence in the competition so far.

Expect a first ever AFCON knockout victory for Os Palancas Negras.

Winner: Angola

Cape Verde vs. Mauritania

Mauritania had failed to win in their previous eight AFCON games before finally breaking their duck to dispatch a listless Algeria in their last match — that may be as good as it gets for them in Ivory Coast.

Amir Abdou is a talented tactician, and has definitely overseen improvement with the Mourabitounes, but Cape Verde have been the surprise package of the tournament so far — defeating Ghana and holding Egypt — and should prove too much.

The islanders boast impressive technical quality, clearly love expressing themselves on the field, and have goals in them as well. With seven in the group stage, they’re the tournament’s third highest scorers so far.

Winner: Cape Verde

Morocco vs. South Africa

It’s not been a painless transition to the knockout stages for Morocco, who were enveloped in scandal following the draw with the Democratic Republic of Congo amidst allegations of racist abuse and assault.

Head coach Walid Regragui’s suspension has been lifted — for now at least — which should allow him to focus on with winning the Nations Cup.

The Atlas Lions certainly have the quality, with Hakim Ziyech in particular answering concerns that his struggles at Galatasaray might translate to the international arena.

South Africa, built upon a core of the domestically dominant Mamelodi Sundowns side, have caught the eye, particularly in their 4-0 cruise past COSAFA rivals Namibia.

However, there’s a significant gap in technical quality, tactical sophistication and experience here, which should see the Atlas Lions through to the quarters.

Winner: Morocco

Mali vs. Burkina Faso

Lots of promising build-up and passages of play from these two during the group stages, but ultimately a lack of genuine creativity and a credible, consistent goal threat probably limits the potential impact of both in this tournament.

Burkina Faso are AFCON knockout specialists, and the 2022 semifinalists know what it takes to navigate cagey continental bouts — even if they remain over-reliant on rare moments of inspiration from Bertrand Traore.

Mali may just have the edge, particularly as they remain in Korhogo — just over 100km from the Malian border — and will be able to count on considerable ‘home’ support as they look to reach the last eight.

Winner: Mali

Senegal vs. Ivory Coast

The other standout tie of the round.

Senegal have been a cut above the rest of the competitors so far in this tournament, with their stability and continuity under Aliou Cisse ensuring they remain a well oiled machine as they approach the knockout stages.

Even some concerns around the Teranga Lions heading into the tournament — such as their ageing midfield — have been batted away with the emergence of wonderkid Lamine Camara, among others.

The Ivory Coast, by comparison, are in the midst of a disastrous campaign, and are still reeling in the aftermath of a 4-0 thumping by Equatorial Guinea that led to civil unrest and the sacking of head coach Jean-Louis Gasset mid-tournament.

It’s hard to know what’s more surprising; that the Elephants endured a record-breaking defeat in their own tournament, or that they’re still alive in this campaign despite amassing only three points — and a minus three goal difference — after their three opening fixtures.

Their reward for advancing as one of the best ranked reams? A meeting with the reigning champions.

Bizarre attempts to coax France women’s coach Herve Renard back to the helm mid-tournament smacked of desperation, and with morale surely rock bottom, interim coach Emerse Fae has his work cut out if the hosts are to avoid yet another bitter humbling on home soil.

Winner: Senegal

Egypt vs. Democratic Republic of Congo

These two sides meet with neither of them having won a game yet at this tournament. However, while the Congolese can be largely happy with their route to the Last 16, Egypt have been much more troubled than we’ve come to expect from a team who consistently make the latter stages of these tournaments.

Even before losing talisman Mohamed Salah to an injury that may yet keep him out for the entirety of the tournament, Egypt didn’t look themselves, and only had the Liverpool superstar to thank for a 97th-minute penalty to avoid an ignominious opening defeat by lowly Mozambique.

Intriguingly, the Pharaohs have looked more menacing – or at least freer – without Salah, with Mohamed Mostafa now operating as a clear focal point in attack, and the likes of Omar Marmoush and Trezeguet buzzing around him.

Nonetheless, there’s a genuine vulnerability about this Egypt team — none of the teams still standing conceded more in the group stage — and this could be exposed by the DRC’s vibrant attacking unit.

Indeed, teams struggled to contain the intensity and intelligent movement of Yoane Wissa during the group stages, and we’re tipping the Leopards for a shock victory here.

Winner: Democratic Republic of Congo