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Can New Zealand’s winning machine suck the air out of India’s inevitability?

Like an avalanche thundering down a mountain, India have flattened all before them at this World Cup. It almost seems foretold. It is so, because it has been thus appointed. There are no frailties in their batting group, their star fast bowler timed his return from injury beautifully, the attack is battle-tested, and their fielding has been tenacious, support has been voracious, and two weeks in, this feels like “India’s tournament” in all manner of profound, and occasionally, uncomfortable ways.

Where some squads have had players rolling in and out as if on a carousel, India had largely been untroubled by injury until the last match. But for the absence of Rishabh Pant, this squad is the best of their best.

New Zealand, the only other unbeaten side, have had none of that sense of inevitability, but have been no less ruthless in their crushing. In fact, their victories have been even more emphatic, their net run-rate in the stratosphere. There had not had the fine tuning that India had engaged in prior to the World Cup, but four matches in there appear no obvious weak links for New Zealand, no questions over whether a single place in their XI is truly deserved.

Partly, these teams have thrived by raising threats through the length of their line-ups, in ways that other teams, such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka say, have not, dependent as they are on key players. Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma will always be prized wickets, but around him are batters that average 85.12, 68.36, and 40.11 this year (KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, and Shreyas Iyer, in that order).

New Zealand don’t have quite that pedigree, but have been no-less multi-pronged so far. If it’s not Rachin Ravindra reeling off a maiden ton against England, it’s Daryl Mitchell cracking boundaries against Bangladesh, or Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham combining against Afghanistan.

On the bowling front, India have perhaps the most varied and most carefully put-together frontline bowling in the tournament. Mohammad Siraj takes wickets with the new ball, Ravindra Jadeja provides accurate fingerspin, Kuldeep Yadav menacing wristspin, and Jasprit Bumrah locks down the death overs. If it is true that batters win matches, but bowlers win tournaments, then some of that has to do with having the capacity to produce bowling that suits an array of conditions, and presses a range of opposition buttons.

New Zealand are more reliant on their opening quicks. But if Trent Boult doesn’t get early wickets, Matt Henry – who is almost as good with the new ball – generally does. Mitchell Santner has thrived, his 11 wickets equal highest in the tournament so far. Lockie Ferguson had averaged 60 in 2023 before the World Cup, but has six wickets at 16.66 and an economy rate of 4.00, having excelled in the middle overs especially. Even Phillips has been called upon for his offbreaks when New Zealand have needed to turn the ball away from opposition lefties.

In the kind of tournament in which teams must face roughly two oppositions, and perhaps as many sets of conditions, a week, Dharamsala will throw up fresh challenges. On the eve of the match, the pitch had a covering of grass, and though it will likely be shaved on match day, the surface is expected to provide substantial pace and carry. This is anyway among India’s most seam-friendly venues.

Perhaps in decades gone by, such conditions would be thought to favour New Zealand, but such is the breadth of India’s cricketing machine now, that they have built adaptability into their system, and this will not daunt them. Losing an allrounder of Hardik Pandya’s quality is a blow that would worry most sides, but India already have two allrounders in their XI, and an assortment of high-quality specialists to choose from.

But New Zealand have made sticking and twisting part of their tournament DNA too. They have been in three limited-overs World Cup finals since 2015. Where India’s billing is that they are a team of matchwinners, through a nimbleness with strategy, New Zealand have made matchwinners of the players they have.

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