The Formula 1 driver market can be brutal, but even by its historic standards Carlos Sainz has been dealt a harsh hand.
It was long before a wheel was turned in anger in his final contracted season that Sainz was told he would be surplus to requirements at Ferrari, displaced by the blockbuster signing of Lewis Hamilton during the off-season.
The now three-time race winner has been cut adrift to bob unanchored in one of the most unpredictable driver markets in recent memory.
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There is no guarantee that he’ll find himself in a competitive seat by 2025.
Hamilton’s contract justifies itself. The Briton is a seven-time champion who’ll bring almost two decades of experience with him to Maranello.
His signature is a statement of intent from Ferrari, and the move will be a powerful rejuvenating tonic for him in the twilight of his career.
But it’s a testament to Sainz’s value that it still feels unjust. The Spaniard has done nothing to deserve the axe — in fact he’s only improved the longer he’s occupied the seat alongside anointed Ferrari leader Charles Leclerc.
The unfairness of Sainz’s situation felt heaviest at the weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, where a comprehensive victory reminded the sport that one of its best operators is still without a contract.
But it also raised another more uncomfortable question for Ferrari.
With Sainz only growing in strength as he heads towards the exit, how will it handle the very real prospect of getting to the end of the season and potentially bidding farewell to its best performing driver?
In turn that will logically demand the question: has the team dropped the wrong man?
Piastri content with McLaren team orders | 01:37
LECLERC IS FAST — BUT SAINZ IS NO SLOUCH
Qualifying
Leclerc is arguably the quickest driver on the current grid over one lap, having amassed an impressive 23 pole positions despite rarely having had the outright fastest car.
With that in mind, it’s unsurprising to know that Leclerc has beaten Sainz in qualifying 41-27.
But the average margin between them is tiny.
In 2021, their first year as teammates, the average margin was just 0.043 seconds.
In 2022 it shrunk to 0.038 seconds.
In 2023 the gap grew slightly to 0.063 seconds.
As of the Australian Grand Prix weekend, Leclerc’s average qualifying advantage over Sainz during their time as Ferrari teammates stands at just 0.05 seconds.
It’s enormously impressive alongside a driver as formidable as Leclerc over one lap and highlights that while Leclerc is reliably quicker, it’s not by much.
Races
Leclerc has won more grands prix than Sainz, 5-3, but they’ve each won three times since teaming up in 2021.
How they won them is interesting.
Leclerc’s three wins came in 2022 and on days Ferrari had the fastest race car.
Victories in Bahrain and Australia were dominant pole-to-flag performances. Though Max Verstappen retired from both, the Dutchman had been beaten before bowing out of each.
Leclerc’s win Austria came from second on the grid, but Verstappen was no match for him in race trim.
Sainz’s wins have been more interesting.
His maiden came from pole position at Silverstone, but only after the faster Verstappen and Leclerc were hamstrung by damage and strategy respectively.
His next victory came famously at last year’s Singapore Grand Prix, where he started from pole and put on a defensive masterclass to keep the faster Mercedes drivers behind him and the second-placed Lando Norris.
He claimed his third triumph at the weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, keeping at bay Leclerc and the McLaren drivers in a flawless performance from second on the grid.
After 68 races together, Leclerc leads his teammate by 69.5 points — and 62 of those points were racked up in 2022, when Sainz suffered twice as many retirements.
As in qualifying, there’s much less between them than you might have thought.
‘RED! I’m in the middle! F****** hell!’ | 00:27
A COMPLEMENTARY LINE-UP
Leclerc has had the benefit of fast machinery to win his races. This isn’t a slight on the Monegasque, who was devastatingly effective and clearly the faster of the two Ferrari drivers on all three occasions. His victories were thoroughly deserved.
It tallies with his best qualifying performances — he’s practically unbeatable when the car is exactly to his liking.
But inversely we’ve seen Leclerc struggle on days the car isn’t exactly where he wants it to be.
His qualifying defeats to Sainz have tended to come in consecutive races, when he’s been unable to triangulate the car’s sweet spot.
We see a similar trend in races. Leclerc trailed Sainz for most of the first half of last year as the team attempted to tame its unpredictable and peaky car. The nadir came in Spain, where he knocked himself out of qualifying in Q1 and raced to 11th, outside the points, while Sainz finished a reasonable fifth.
Sainz has been comparatively less troubled by Ferrari’s imperfect cars.
None of his wins has been in the fastest car. Instead they’ve been scraps in circumstances that would trip up lesser drivers.
It speaks to the Spaniard’s intelligence behind the wheel. He appears to have that rare ability to visualise a race from beyond his own cockpit, thinking ahead and strategising his way forward.
It makes him a dependable and consistent force, more often getting the most out of his car when other drivers might perform more erratically.
None of the above makes either driver better or worse as a complete package. The points prove there’s almost nothing between them when it counts.
It says only that the Leclerc-Sainz pairing is arguably the sport’s best not simply for its performance but for their complementary abilities.
When Ferrari has its car performing in exactly the sweet spot, Leclerc is world championship material.
When Leclerc can’t grapple with the car’s shortcomings, however, Sainz steps up to maximise what’s on offer — perhaps an undervalued ability when the season covers 24 different circuits, making it almost impossible for one car to be consistently good throughout the year.
Verstappen reacts after early retirement | 01:19
WHERE WILL HAMILTON FIT INTO THINGS?
Lewis Hamilton’s arrival disrupts this high-functioning dynamic.
That’s not an argument against hiring him. Even a Hamilton only close to his best can be expected to contend for poles and wins in a competitive Ferrari. On paper you’d always pick him.
Leclerc’s higher performance ceiling makes him an obvious choice too, even above the consistent Sainz.
But do Hamilton and Leclerc combine to form the best overall line-up?
Hamilton will need time to adjust to his new surroundings after 12 years with Mercedes.
The learning curve will be steep, and we don’t know how he’s going to mesh with the team or if he’ll be happy with the way the Ferrari drives.
It could take times for things to click.
Meanwhile, Leclerc still has questions to answer about whether he can reliably nail Ferrari’s best chances, especially when the car isn’t right at the front.
Sainz’s victories in Singapore and Australia were on weekends the team needed to be flawless to convert. Leclerc was just behind Sainz on both occasions.
While his highs are dizzying, his low form at times last year was puzzling.
Then there’s the thoroughly possible scenario in which Sainz beats Leclerc in this year’s championship standings, something he would have achieved last year but for some late bad luck.
A Leclerc-Hamilton line-up obviously has massive potential, but if Ferrari isn’t as good as it hopes to be in the next two seasons, there’s also the risk it ends up as an underwhelming flop.
And if that comes to pass, one wonders how much the team might miss having the cerebral approach and technical input Sainz brought to the table.
Ricciardo under pressure as Lawson looms | 00:39
WHAT NEXT FOR SAINZ?
There was an interesting exchange between Ferrari boss Frédéric Vasseur and the assembled media on Sunday night in Melbourne.
Asked what made Sainz so good — and how he’d respond to a rival team principal asking if they should sign Sainz for 2025 — Vasseur rebuffed the question.
“I will be focused until the end of the season,” he said. “I want to get the best from everybody in the team, Carlos included.”
Of course singing Sainz’s praises too highly might make Ferrari look silly for having dropped him, even if few could seriously argue against hiring Hamilton.
Leclerc was more forthcoming with his character assessment.
“I think everybody knows Carlos’s worth in the paddock,” he said. “He’s one of the highest rated drivers in the paddock, and he’s been extremely strong every time he was in a Formula 1 car.
“That’s why I’ve said many times that I’m not too worried about his future, because I’m sure that many, many team principals are — he doesn’t say it — for sure speaking with him.
“I’m sure he will have many opportunities and he’ll just have to make the best choice for his career.”
Rumours about where Sainz might land in 2025 were turbocharged in Melbourne, beginning at Red Bull Racing.
“I think we want to field the best pairing that we can at Red Bull Racing, and sometimes you’ve got to look outside the pool,” team boss Christian Horner said, changing the subject following a question about promoting Yuki Tsunoda.
“You’ve had a very fast unemployed driver win today.
“Based on a performance like that, you couldn’t rule any possibility out.”
Sainz would surely relish the opportunity to rematch with Verstappen at the sport’s most dominant team.
But he wouldn’t necessarily be the team’s preferred choice given he would be more than the steady number two Milton Keynes ideally wants behind Verstappen.
RBR wants a driver who can win when Verstappen can’t. Sainz, though, would probably offer Verstappen a stiff challenge when he’s operating as high as 95 per cent or less — a marked change to the current situation of one-way traffic.
That assumes Verstappen will stay. The chance of him leaving remains a live option, and Sainz would have to be at the top of the list to replace the Dutchman if he were to walk.
There’s been little talk about a Mercedes connection, with the German marque thought to be keen on trying its luck getting Verstappen first. F1 young gun Andrea Kimi Antonelli would be the team’s priority otherwise, including if that means offering an older driver a stopgap short-term deal.
Next best would be Aston Martin, which will have a seat available if Fernando Alonso leaves or retires. Such a move would allow Sainz to keep in touch with the frontrunners and finally become a clear team leader, a role into which he’d fit well.
After that the options become grimmer.
He’s long been linked with Sauber, which will become the Audi works team by 2026 with Sainz’s former team boss Andreas Seidl at the helm. There’s a family connection too, with Carlos Sainz Sr currently in Audi’s Dakar stable.
But Audi would be a long-term project. With his 31st birthday next year, Sainz would be signing away his peak years in the hope of turning the historically lower midfield team into a race-winning success.
Beyond that?
Alpine is a works team but is in serious distress.
Williams is a longer term project than Audi.
Haas has a competitive ceiling under its current business model.
RB would make no sense if he were snubbed by the senior Red Bull Racing team.
Realistically Sainz has maybe two viable chances at a frontrunning seat and one at a backmarker team with upside.
Perhaps it’ll come good. Or perhaps his career will stall just as it’s beginning to really blossom.
It’s a situation unbecoming of a driver of his calibre, but such is the harsh nature of the F1 driver market.
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