Clayton Oliver contract, injury, age, possible suitors, Adelaide, Essendon, Carlton, Geelong

So much for a quiet trade period.

Yes Clayton Oliver hasn’t requested a trade. Yes he’s contracted to Melbourne for another seven years, reportedly worth around $1 million a season. Yes the Demons aren’t openly ‘shopping’ a 26-year-old star — described by club great Garry Lyon on SEN on Wednesday as a “generational midfield talent” — and remain adamant he’s a required player.

Yes so many hurdles would need to be cleared for a bombshell Oliver trade to come to fruition.

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But this is the key: Rival clubs believe he’s gettable, to the point where some have already contacted the Demons about the possibility of an Oliver deal. The Demons, according to reports, are open to these discussions. One rival list manager, who spoke to foxfooty.com.au, believes the Dees are in “thinking mode”.

Those details, plus the public silence from the Demons and Oliver camp since Tuesday’s stunning reports, will only fuel the fire.

For if the Oliver situation ignites, he’d undoubtedly become the centrepiece of this year’s trade period that could prompt a domino effect involving multiple teams.

“I was staggered his name was put out there,” triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney told foxfooty.com.au.

“Unless it’s denied, there must be something there from both sides to get the traction it has.”

If all 17 other clubs had juicy draft hands and lots of salary cap room to work with, they’d seriously consider a play for Oliver. The reality is a lot of them don’t and, therefore, can’t trade for him.

Some clubs believe they do have the capacity to do a deal. But whether they can appease Oliver – a superstar on-baller who last year signed a long-term extension with a team right in the premiership window – and the Demons – who are renowned for their ambition at the trade table – remains unclear.

From the rocky 2023 campaign to the way-too-early list of possible suitors, foxfooty.com.au breaks down the early Oliver trade state of play.

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THE 2023 ‘NARRATIVE ROLLERCOASTER’

There were high external expectations on Oliver to deliver in 2023.

Taken by the Demons with Pick 4 in the 2015 draft, Oliver was an integral member of Melbourne’s drought-breaking 2021 premiership team, while he’d also won four club best and fairests, two AFLCA Champion Player of the Year awards and three All-Australian blazers.

Of the 28 Fox Footy pundits surveyed pre-season, nine predicted Oliver to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal after finishing third and fifth respectively in the previous two counts.

After taking on Port Adelaide in Round 10, reported soreness in his hamstring after the Power game. He was sent for scans, which revealed a hamstring strain, with the club anticipating Oliver wouldn’t be “available in the short term”.

It turned out to be a complex hamstring strain. He would miss the Demons’ next 12 games.

And it’s during this period between Rounds 11 and 22 where Dees fans were taken on a narrative rollercoaster – and potentially where a disconnect between Oliver and Melbourne began.

Oliver’s return was then delayed, due to an infected blister on his foot put him in hospital for four days.

Melbourne in late June was hopeful Oliver would be fit to take on Geelong. But a hamstring setback in the days prior to the match saw him not selected.

In the wake of the non-selection, there was ample speculation and rumour surrounding Oliver, which moved the Demons to address the matter publicly.

“It (Oliver’s recovery from the hamstring injury) is going slower than we’d like, so we’ll get that looked at. It could be that he’s right to go next week, but it might not be. So we’ll just have to wait and see,” Demons football boss Alan Richardson told 3AW’s Wide World Of Sports on June 22.

“But the other suggested reasons for him not playing are ridiculous, disappointing and bloody hard for Clayton and his family and friends to have to deal with.”

By mid-July, Oliver had been on the verge of returning for a few weeks but was left visibly frustrated at one training session, having a tense argument with Demons fitness boss Selwyn Griffith. He left the track early before being ruled out by the club for another “three to four weeks” … which ultimately turned into five.

Days later, Oliver was at Marvel Stadium for his side’s Round 17 win over St Kilda, but vision played on Fox Footy’s On The Couchshowed the on-baller completing exercises in the Demons’ rooms allegedly midway through the match.

While lauding Oliver’s “professionalism”, Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley said the exercises were “counterintuitive”, while claiming the Demons hadn’t managed Oliver’s injury as well as they could’ve.

“I think it (mid-game exercises) has to speak to nervous energy. I don’t know why you’d need to do a session whilst your teammates are playing. I think that he is ‘cat on a hot tin roof’,” Buckley told On The Couch.

“My read on it is – and I’ve suffered this – it’s really hard to listen to the medicos when the best course of action for you is to do nothing, to rest.

“What I believe has happened is they’ve missed a trick early. It was an injury that needed absolute rest early for a week and a half – and he was running on day two.”

It’s alleged that during this 11-week period, Oliver became frustrated with Melbourne’s medical and high performance teams, but the Demons were disappointed with Oliver’s lack of professionalism.

Oliver eventually returned against Carlton in Round 22. And while he didn’t hit the ground running, he lifted during Melbourne’s finals campaign, producing big games against Collingwood then Carlton.

The Dees, however, lost both games, becoming the first AFL team this century to be knocked out in straight sets.

Now they face, possibly, another embarrassing prospect of Oliver leaving.

Adding to the curiosity, foxfooty.com.au understands Oliver was late to his exit meeting and didn’t attend a post-season team meeting — the same one Brodie Grundy missed — due to illness.

As Fox Footy commentator Dwayne Russell bluntly put it on his SEN radio program: “Melbourne either needs to give Clayton Oliver a massive hug, or they need to trade him — one of the two.”

PROS AND CONS OF A TRADE BOMBSHELL

Precedent suggests an injury-riddled player moves clubs after experiencing years of consistent issues, hoping that a new environment and fresh opinions will revitalise them. Think Joe Daniher, who after just 15 games in three seasons at Essendon moved to Brisbane in 2020 – a decision the key forward has benefited from immensely.

But with Oliver, prior to this year he’d been one of Melbourne’s most durable and reliable players who’d performed consistently at such a high elite level for so long.

After Oliver faced Port Adelaide in Round 10 earlier this year, he’d played in 144 of Melbourne’s past 145 games, with only a fractured thumb injury – caused by an accidental kick to the hand and required surgery – keeping him sidelined … for one week.

So if Oliver is keen to move after a frustrating 11-week stint on the sidelines – albeit one both parties could’ve handled better – it suggests a serious and sudden fracturing between him and the club has taken place – and that a trade could benefit both parties.

It seems there’s more pros for Oliver than Melbourne. It’d be easier for Oliver to put the mess of 2023 behind him in a new environment, rather than staying at the Dees. Although if Oliver did agree to be traded, you sense it’d be to another club in the premiership window or one about to join it, considering he’s still only 26 and only last year signed a lengthy contract with a club in the premiership sweet spot.

Melbourne, however, would back itself to support Oliver off the back of a frustrating season.

Ultimately, the Demons last year showed just how invested they are in the midfielder when they offered him a seven-year contract extension, worth reportedly $7 million.

With the Demons still clearly in the premiership window, an Oliver departure would have significant ramifications for the club’s flag hopes. Dees coach Simon Goodwin has also consistently stressed how important “defence and contest” is to his side and its past success – and Oliver has been Melbourne’s No. 1 average contested possession winner for the past seven consecutive seasons.

Mooney has previously said the Dees should be aiming to win “two, possibly flags” with their current list. Losing one of their best players would put a serious dent in those hopes.

“There’s clearly some issues and it’d be a big call for the footy club because he’s a top five player,” Mooney said.

“They’d be disappointed to walk away with one premiership medal with this list, and he’s clearly a massive player in it.”

The flipside from a Demons viewpoint is that it could help them either move up into the pointy end of this year’s draft or put them in a position to land a prominent, ready-made player at a rival club.

Melbourne has been aggressive at the trade table in recent years, particularly when trying to move up the draft order – last year they reportedly offered three first-round selections to Essendon for Picks 4 and 22 at the time – which is why rivals could see the Dees parting with multiple first-rounders to acquire the first pick this year.

The Demons not only hold their natural first and second-round selections (Picks 13 and 33), they also have 14th-placed Fremantle’s first and second-rounders (Picks 5 and 25) courtesy of the Luke Jackson trade last year.

Considering Oliver’s clear elite talent, already stacked CV and long-term deal, the Demons’ potential starting position at the trade table would be multiple first-round picks in exchange for the midfielder.

And should they add more first-rounders to their arsenal, that’d put them in an even better position to make a play for West Coast’s Pick 1 and, subsequently, generational Bendigo Pioneers prospect Harley Reid, who’s widely regarded as the best player in this year’s draft pool. Other clubs — almost certainly North Melbourne, would need to be involved for that to happen, but adding Reid to a list already in flag contention would be a mighty coup if the Dees pulled it off.

POTENTIAL OLIVER SUITORS — AND WHAT THEY COULD OFFER

As aforementioned, a lot has to play out before we officially get to this stage. But the fact the Dees have already fielded calls means there’s belief from rivals they can do an Oliver deal.

One club that would make sense for both them and Oliver would be Adelaide — a club that almost played finals ahead of external expectations this year that needs a star inside midfielder and has a fitness boss who could help Oliver out.

The Crows under coach Matthew Nicks made significant inroads in 2023, finishing 10th with an 11-12 record but a percentage of 116.8 — the fourth-best in the competition. Yet they were also a mid-table team for clearances and contested possessions, while they were 14th for opposition points from clearance.

The Crows’ forward line is stacked and their defence is young but emerging, but Oliver feels like he would complement the on-ball brigade of skipper Jordan Dawson, Matt Crouch and Rory Laird.

Adelaide also holds Pick 9, so could package that selection with its future first — and maybe a player too — for Oliver.

But it’s important to note Pick 9 will get pushed back. And ultimately, an early teens pick and future first-rounder (likely in a similar spot) mightn’t be enough to appease the Dees. Although, Adelaide has Picks 21 and 23 — and possibly another second-rounder as compensation for losing Tom Doedee to Brisbane — so there’s a bit to play with.

Geelong has the selection before the Bombers at Pick 7. It’s potentially one of the best first-rounders that could get put on the table given lower-ranked sides mightn’t be a realistic landing spot. Pundits also believe the Cats’ on-ball brigade needs a big name to keep them in contention — especially with skipper Patrick Dangerfield closer to the end of his career than the start — hence the club’s link to Darcy Parish before he re-signed at Essendon. Oliver would clearly fill a need.

Geelong is also disciplined with its salary cap spending and generally has funds to use, is notorious for having one of, if not the, best cultures in the competition and Oliver wouldn’t need to leave Victoria. It ticks quite a few boxes.

All eyes are on ambitious St Kilda, too, this trade period with so many of its players still unsigned for next season. The Saints have already been linked to a fascinating play for Dylan Shiel – and they were right in the hunt 12 months ago for then-free agent Jordan De Goey before he re-signed at Collingwood – so they’re eyeing a midfield spark. But they hold Pick 12.

Sydney looms as one of the biggest and busiest players of this trade period, with coach John Longmire clearly keen to add to a list in the premiership window. Oliver would not only be stepping into a club with a strong, established culture, he’d fill a need at Sydney, whose midfield struggles against top-ranked teams in recent years have been well documented. The club also has past success at landing big fish.

The Swans’ draft hand, though, isn’t as good as other clubs, with their first-rounder not until Pick 11, followed by selections 23 and 31. Plus there’s a bit to play out with what the salary of Oliver’s teammate Brodie Grundy looks like should he, as expected, land at the Swans.

Sydney’s cross-town rival the Giants are another one to watch, with the club holding Picks 6 and 15 and flexibility in its midfield — Callan Ward and Josh Kelly could play more outside the square if needed — to bring in a player of Oliver’s calibre. Though the club’s salary cap position might make it difficult as it looks to find a new home Nick Haynes as something of a ‘salary dump’ deal.

Essendon, at this stage, has the cap space at a stage where it’s keen to improve quickly under Brad Scott. Like Adelaide, it fell just short of playing finals this year, but were among the bottom-eight clubs for contested possessions and clearance differential. The Bombers hold Pick 8 and their future-first, but they’re also set to pay free agents Ben McKay and Jade Gresham handsomely — and probably the club furthest away from the already-mentioned teams.

Gold Coast is another intriguing option given its Pick 4 is on the table as is — and the Dees have been linked to that pick already. Could the Suns give the Dees Pick 4 to go with Picks 5 and 13 and help it assemble a package to make a run for the opening selection and thus land Reid?

The Suns also make sense in the exciting direction they’re moving in under Damien Hardwick as the club looks to play finals for the first time in its history. But they do have Touk Miller, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson as established midfielders, plus Sam Flanders coming through the ranks.

Beyond such teams, the tricky part is that the clubs who do have the assets to get a deal done either probably wouldn’t make sense on Oliver’s end or mightn’t want to bring in a player with potential off-field issues.

For example, if North Melbourne or Hawthorn could convince Oliver to go to them, they have Picks 2 and 3 respectively to offer in a trade. But with the star midfielder set to turn 27 next season, would he want to play for a club seemingly still a few years away from playing finals?

And clearly he’s not going to West Coast.

The likes of Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond and Carlton simply don’t have the draft capital to make a trade. And though a framework swap with the Blues, who previously had interest in Oliver, involving Harry McKay might get floated in the media given the Dees’ clear near for a star forward, it won’t happen.

The Western Bulldogs hold some nice draft picks (10 and 17) if they were to want to get involved. However Melbourne would likely ask for Aaron Naughton or Tim English — and the Dogs are already stacked enough in their midfield, as much as Oliver would clearly still help.

But overall, whether a club can pull off such a big play for such a big-name player remains doubtful.

“They generally plan this stuff from a long way back,” Essendon legend Tim Watson told SEN Breakfast on Wednesday morning. “If they’re going to make an assault on a particular player, they’re generally talking to them for 12 months, 18 months, potentially two years waiting for them to come out of contract.

“There would be very few clubs right now that would have $1 million sitting there available to them that they could pay … and if they did and decided they were going to go for Clayton Oliver, they would probably have to move something else around, which means the potential for this is someone could make way for Clayton Oliver if he becomes available. That means that facilitates another move of one of their players, which means there becomes a movement in the system that wasn’t thought to be possible maybe a week ago.”