The NBA playoffs are just over a month away and while the Boston Celtics are clear frontrunners in the East, there is a three-way tussle for supremacy over in the West.
Here foxsports.com.au breaks down where every NBA team finds itself ahead of the run home, placing them into five tiers — contenders, dark horses, teams making up the numbers, those planning for next year and teams who should also turn their attention towards 2025.
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There is one exception though, which brings us to the first team in the Eastern Conference.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
IN A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN
1. Boston Celtics (48-12)
In the Western Conference the top teams are separated into a tier of contenders. But in the East that doesn’t apply. The Celtics are just in a tier of their own, most recently destroying the much-improved Warriors by 52 points in yet another reminder of their championship credentials. “I think the entire league needs to be watching what the Boston Celtics are doing and understanding that they are the team to beat,” Richard Jefferson said on ABC during that game. “I understand that the Denver Nuggets are the defending champions but to me there is no greater threat to them really going on a run and winning a couple than what the Boston Celtics are presenting this season.”
The challenge when it comes to Boston is just how talented and deep this roster is, to the extent that you can’t send help to double Jayson Tatum, for example, because whoever you leave open is going to make you pay. Just as the Warriors learned after intentionally sagging off Jaylen Brown near the perimeter in the opening quarter. The result? He had 19 points in seven minutes. Boston ranks first in the league in offensive rating and second in defensive rating. It is hard to see the Celtics not making the NBA Finals considering how good they have been, although performing in the playoffs hasn’t always been a guarantee from Boston in recent seasons.
CONTENDERS
2. Milwaukee Bucks (41-21)
When the Bucks sacked first-year coach Adrian Griffin it came as a bit of a surprise, at least on the surface, since the team ranked second in the Eastern Conference standings with a 30-13 record. But there was a prevailing thought that Milwaukee was achieving those results in spite of Griffin, particularly given the lack of improvement on the defensive end under him. So, understanding they needed to capitalise on their current championship window, the Bucks made a ruthless call to sack Griffin and hire Doc Rivers. For all the talk about Rivers’ inability to take accountability, the results on defence speak for themselves so far.
The Bucks have gone from recording the 22nd best defensive rating in January to the third-best under coach Rivers while the transition defence in particular has improved from 20th to second-best in the NBA. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard leading the way the Bucks shouldn’t have too many dramas scoring points either, especially in the fourth quarter. It may still take some time to gel but the defence is no longer a major area of concern.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (39-21)
Given what happened last year, where the Cavaliers finished fourth in the East only to be easily handled 4-1 in a first-round series defeat to the Knicks, we can’t get too ahead of ourselves here. But then again, this is a different Cleveland team to the one that didn’t make any noise in the 2022-23 playoffs. This Cavaliers team is stacked with 3-point shooting options off the bench with Sam Merrill shooting 44.1 per cent from downtown while Isaac Okoro is even going at a 40 per cent clip. Max Strus hasn’t been the most consistent outside shooter, averaging 34.0 per cent from deep, but is capable of big games like the one when he went 7-for-10 on 3-pointers against the Mavericks. Elsewhere, Dean Wade is healthy and offering solid production while Craig Porter is a handy depth option too at guard. Of course, then you add in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt and backcourt duo Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs have been one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning 20 of their 26 games since the new year.
4. New York Knicks (36-25)
Under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks have become a hard-edged, gritty, defensive-minded team that scraps for every win. And they’re certainly scrapping for every result at the moment, with All-Star guard Jalen Brunson the latest Knicks starter to go down. Brunson was diagnosed with a left knee contusion after landing awkwardly on his leg in New York’s win over Cleveland earlier this week. Already without starters Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks have had their depth tested recently, losing eight or their last 15 games. The door is open for the Knicks to book an Eastern Conference Finals berth against the Celtics. They just need to stay healthy.
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Brunson limps off moments after tip-off | 00:43
5. Philadaelphia 76ers (35-25)
It all hinges on Joel Embiid’s health. Without him, the Sixers belong in the tier below. Embiid spoke to media earlier this week and said he plans to return at some point before the end of the regular season, regardless of what the team’s record looks like. The reigning MVP has been sidelined since late January after undergoing a procedure to “address an injury to the lateral meniscus in his left knee”. The Sixers have been able to stay afloat without Embiid, winning six of 14 games to sit in fifth position in the Eastern Conference, although the seventh-placed Heat are just one game back from Philadelphia facing the prospect of having to fight its way through the play-in tournament. The Sixers rank 20th in offensive rating and second-last in defensive rating in their 14 games without Embiid. They can’t afford to rush him back though given they still have the ammunition to go after a big name over the summer and put all their focus into the 2024-25 season.
7. Miami Heat (34-26).
If we learned anything from last season, it is that you can never count out Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra and the Heat. Of course, Miami’s magical run to the NBA Finals had as much to do with Max Strus and Gabe Vincent as it did the team’s superstar forward, who averaged 21.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists in the month of February. The Heat have won eight of their last 10 to sit 0.5 games short of the sixth-placed Orlando Magic and just 1.5 games behind the fourth-placed Knicks, who are now vulnerable with their recent run of injuries. Miami has ranked eighth and third in offensive and defensive rating during that period. Miami’s backcourt depth has been tested with injuries to Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, although the additions of Terry Rozier via trade and Delon Wright have helped bolster its guard stocks. The Heat even added Patty Mills in a low-risk move ahead of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Duncan Robinson has improved into a more well-rounded player to go from out of the rotation to pushing for a starting spot. And then there is rookie Jaime Jacquez Jr., who has been an immediate contributor averaging 12.7 points.
Knicks lose Brunson, but still beat Cavs | 00:55
MAKING UP THE NUMBERS
6. Orlando Magic (35-26)
This young Magic team made a statement before the season proper even started, showing early signs they could become the best isolation defence teams in the league. Those pre-season performances didn’t end up being a fluke either, with Orlando’s top-tier one-on-one defenders helping the Magic to the fifth-best defensive rating this season and, at the moment, sixth spot in the East. It is hard to see Orlando going deep in the playoffs given this is still an inexperienced team but like Oklahoma City in the West, it doesn’t matter all too much. The Magic are quickly building one of the most exciting, young rosters in the league and will only continue to get better with emerging and already emerged talent in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr. and Anthony Black.
8. Indiana Pacers (34-28)
The numbers tell quite a simple story. This is one of the most dynamic scoring teams in the league but their best chance of doing anything in the playoffs involves outgunning their opponent because they aren’t going to win on the back of their defence. The Pacers currently have the second-best offensive rating and fifth-worst defensive rating in the league. After the All-Star break though Indiana’s offensive rating has dropped to eighth-best in the NBA while the defence has improved, but only slightly, to sixth-worst. That coincides with Tyrese Haliburton slowing down after a stunning start to the season which saw him average 28.6 points and 11.7 assists per game in November. Haliburton admitted on J.J. Redick’s podcast last month that he had rushed back from his hamstring injury because of the 65-game threshold he needed to reach to be eligible for the All-NBA team and a potential $41 million bonus. Whether Haliburton is still feel the ill-effects on that or taking on too heavy a workload in his return is something only the All-Star guard himself can answer.
Emotional Paolo discusses game-winner | 00:45
SHOULD BE PLANNING FOR NEXT YEAR
9. Chicago Bulls (29-32)
DeMar DeRozan said last summer that the Bulls were too “inconsistent” in the 2022-23 season. Well, guess what? Inconsistency has again been Chicago’s biggest issue and it makes it incredibly hard to get a read on the Bulls ahead of the playoffs. Are they capable of winning one playoffs series? Sure. But a lot of things would have to go right and that is definitely true if Chicago is somehow going to make a deep run. The Bulls looked to be building something when they beat the Timberwolves and Grizzlies earlier this month but went on to drop four of their next six games, including a 10-point loss to the lowly Pistons. They then backed that defeat up with an overtime win over the Cavs before a 16-point loss to the Bucks. Consistently inconsistent is what the Bulls have been all season long. Just not good enough to take the leap, which makes their inactivity at the trade deadline all the more puzzling. At least the improvement of Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu gives Bulls fans something to look forward to.
10. Atlanta Hawks (26-34)
The Hawks were always going to be a frisky play-in tournament team with a chance of pulling off an upset in the first round of the playoffs and nothing more. An injury to star guard Trae Young, however, has Atlanta in danger of falling out of the play-in tournament entirely with the 25-year-old undergoing surgery on a torn radial collateral ligament in the fifth finger of his left hand. Young is going to be re-evaluated in four weeks and while the Hawks won their first two games without him they have since dropped two straight against the Nets. Regardless, Atlanta has the second-worst defensive rating in the league so it was hard to see the Hawks going deep in the playoffs even with Young healthy.
11. Brooklyn Nets (24-37)
They are technically still in the hunt but things really took a turn for the worse before the Nets sacked Jacque Vaughn, with Kevin Ollie taking over as interim coach. The results since have been mixed, with Brooklyn winning three of its last five games. But the Nets have also been blown out by the Raptors, Timberwolves and Magic since Ollie’s appointment. This is a team still trying to figure out its identity and injuries to emerging guard Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons only makes things harder, especially given the Australian was such a central part of Brooklyn’s plans on offence — especially in transition. Mikal Bridges continues to prove why he was such an in-demand target at the trade deadline while Dennis Schroder is proving a handy pick-up, averaging 12.4 points and 5.1 assists since joining the Nets.
Struss sinks ABSURD halfcourt winner! | 01:04
12. Toronto Raptors (23-38)
Another team that at this point is better using the remaining games of the season to develop its on-court chemistry after the departures of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby before the trade deadline. The injury to Scottie Barnes, which was later revealed to be a fracture to his third metacarpal bone in his left hand, will only make things harder for the Raptors given he is unlikely to return before the end of the regular season. One shining light to emerge in the second half of the season is the form of RJ Barrett, who has impressed with a career-high 20.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists since making the move from New York via trade. Meanwhile, fellow former Knicks teammate Immanuel Quickley is growing in confidence as a playmaker and in particular when operating in the pick-and-roll with big-man Jakob Poeltl.
ALREADY PLANNING FOR NEXT YEAR
13. Charlotte Hornets (15-46)
Can we just have one season with a healthy LaMelo Ball? The 22-year-old guard has been sidelined since late January with an ankle injury after managing just 36 games in the 2022-23 season. Ball is the biggest name missing but Seth Curry, Cody Martin, Nick Richards and Mark Williams are all also battling injuries while the Hornets have now dropped five of their last six games after a promising stretch of results earlier in February.
14. Detroit Pistons (9-51)
After a disastrous start to the season the Pistons have picked up a few wins and are now level with the Wizards on nine wins. There is still plenty of potential in this young team, with Cade Cunningham the most likely player to emerge into a genuine top-tier star in the NBA. Although there are still question marks over what his ceiling looks like and obviously injury setbacks since his rookie season haven’t helped. Elsewhere, there are concerns over Ausar Thompson’s shooting while Jalen Duren’s defence remains a work in progress. More than anything, patience is needed if this is the young core Detroit wants to build around.
Pistons coach FIRES UP after Knicks loss | 02:27
15. Washington Wizards (9-52)
Watch out Pistons, the Wizards are coming for you. Washington has dropped 15 games in a row and if its losing ways continue, coincidentally Detroit would have the opportunity to inflict a 28th defeat in a row on the Wizards, tying its record losing skid. Unlike the Pistons and Hornets, the Wizards are right at the start of a full-scale rebuild after trading away Bradley Beal so it may be a long time before Washington is relevant again. Of course, usually being the worst team in the NBA isn’t such a bad thing when it involves the potential of a high draft pick but this year’s class lacks top-tier talent — at least the kind of talent that can turn around this franchise’s fortunes right away.
PLAYOFFS SERIES IF SEASON ENDED TODAY:
(1) Celtics vs. (8) Play-In Winner
(2) Bucks vs. (7) Play-In Winner
(3) Cavaliers vs. (6) Magic
(4) Knicks vs. (5) 76ers
Play-in tournament
(7) Heat vs. (8) Pacers
(9) Bulls vs. (10) Hawks
WESTERN CONFERENCE
THE CONTENDERS
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (43-19)
While the Clippers may have the bigger names, this is the team that has already caused real problems for the defending champion Nuggets this season. Minnesota and Denver play each other three more times before the playoffs but it was a comprehensive 110-89 win for the T’Wolves in their one meeting earlier this season as Nikola Jokic was held to just three assists. The Timberwolves settled to letting Jokic score in exchange for taking away his playmaking, effectively using Karl-Anthony Towns as an on-ball defender while having Rudy Gobert roam the paint. It proved the right strategy on that occasion and when you add in the rising superstar that is Anthony Edwards, a 3-and-D wing in Jaden McDaniels and the experience of Mike Conley, this is a team that could go deep and potentially all the way to the Finals considering the match-up problems they could present the Nuggets.
NBA Wrap: Slow burn Lakers silence OKC | 01:33
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (42-19)
The Thunder are ahead of schedule so there is the temptation to not entirely buy into their contender status because it just seems to all be happening so fast, as if this young group needs a bit more time and a bit more playoff experience before making a deep run. But keeping OKC out of this tier would be a disservice to just what this team has achieved in the regular season under Mark Daigneault, led by star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Of course, playoff basketball is another beast entirely but the Thunder have built their success off doing things differently, putting together a roster stacked with playmaking, positional size and high basketball IQ that makes them uniquely well-positioned to make things uncomfortable for rival teams in the post-season despite their inexperience.
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The big question mark is what role Josh Giddey plays given the way opposition defences have already treated him in the post-season, often leaving the Australian wide-open until his outside shooting in particular improves. The acquisition of Gordon Hayward at the trade deadline offers OKC an experienced option with similar skills to lean on more heavily should Giddey continue to struggle and be more heavily targeted on defence. It is not necessarily that Giddey won’t play but that his minutes will be staggered to better surround him with shooting and have the Australian play on the ball more. The only complicating factor is that Jalen Williams has done particularly well running OKC’s second unit so it is hard to go away from what works.
3. Denver Nuggets (42-19)
Based on their recent stretch of form since the All-Star break, the defending champions look to be building towards another run at the title. The Nuggets dropped three games in a row early last month, including heavy defeats to the Kings and Bucks, but have since won six straight despite a few lingering injury concerns. Jamal Murray has been playing through shin splints while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was dealing with a hamstring injury before the break. Murray had been really heating up before suffering an ankle injury against the Heat, scoring 59 points in wins over the Warriors and Kings. Fortunately he returned for the Nuggets’ victory over the Lakers, putting up 24 points and 11 assists. Of course, Nikola Jokic remains a walking triple-double while Michael Porter Jr. has been lights out recently. Add in the two-way impact of Aaron Gordon and the presence of the always ready Justin Holiday off the bench and the Nuggets looked primed to give the West another shake. Denver is in a good position to take top seed in the conference with the 11th easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.
Nuggets win NBA finals rematch | 01:04
4. Los Angeles Clippers (39-21)
Health was always going to be the key for the Clippers and fortunately for them Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been able to stay on the court more often than not this season. A fractured hand for Russell Westbrook won’t help given the success Los Angeles had after the guard reportedly volunteered to come off the bench after the Clippers suffered six straight losses. Although Westbrook had been in a rough shooting stretch lately anyway. Westbrook though isn’t the only one who has put the team first this season, with James Harden also embracing his role as the third option in this Clippers offence since making the move from Philadelphia. In fact, Harden’s usage percentage is the lowest since his second NBA season with the Thunder, which in some ways will be a relief in the post-season where there won’t be as much pressure on the 34-year-old with Leonard and George running the show. Speaking of which, if Jokic didn’t exist Leonard may well be a leading contender in the MVP race. Leonard is averaging 24.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists and provided he stays healthy, the Clippers could be poised to make the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history (53 years).
THE DARK HORSES
5. New Orleans Pelicans (36-25)
Like the Clippers, this one is all about health. Losing Australian Dyson Daniels, who underwent a successful meniscectomy on his left knee in mid-February, doesn’t help. For his shortcomings on the offensive end, Daniels is one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the league and formed a fearsome tandom with teammate Herb Jones, helping create fast-break opportunities. Otherwise, New Orleans has a clean bill of health — a stark contrast to where New Orleans found itself last season after injuries spoiled a strong start to the year. If anything, finding ways for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to continue playing off each other into the post-season will be central to determining just far the Pelicans can go. On a personal level, both Williamson and Ingram have been able to stay on the court and in the case of the former, he is looking explosive again finishing at the rim. And when Williamson isn’t doing that he’s running the offence, with New Orleans quickly realising it is at its best with ‘Point Zion’.
6. Phoenix Suns (35-26)
There is little doubting the Suns have the offensive firepower to challenge for a title. But what about the defence? Phoenix currently ranks 13th in the league for defensive rating (114.3), which isn’t too bad. But this just doesn’t look like a team that is complete enough to challenge the likes of Boston and Denver. It is similar to Dallas. Phoenix could absolutely upset a higher seed in the first round of the playoffs, especially when you have Devin Booker and Kevin Durant averaging 27.5 and 27.8 points per game respectively. But the Suns just haven’t been able to build the kind of chemistry needed to make a deep playoffs run, especially when you consider Bradley Beal’s injury woes. Now Booker is dealing with an ankle injury. Phoenix currently sit in sixth position but is at risk of dropping into the play-in tournament with Sacramento, Dallas, Golden State and Los Angeles lurking.
Cavs shock Mavs with crazy buzzer-beater | 01:08
Working against the Suns is the fact they have the hardest schedule remaining according to Tankathon, having to play the Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Cavaliers and Clippers twice before the end of the season. ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on ‘NBA Today’ that it would be a “potential disaster scenario” for the Suns to fall into the play-in tournament. “They went all-in for this team and just haven’t seen it together. When they’ve been together they’ve been really good but once you’re in the play-in you are super vulnerable to not even getting into the playoffs or getting a match-up where it is super hard to win even two or three rounds,” Lowe added.
8. Dallas Mavericks (34-27)
Honestly, the temptation was there to put Dallas in just making up the numbers given its inconsistent recent form. Last month the Mavericks beat up on the Thunder and scored wins over the Knicks and Suns but also went down to the undermanned Sixers, were thumped by the Celtics and Pacers and pipped by a Max Strus prayer shot. It is just hard to see Dallas playing at the consistently high level that is needed to make the NBA Finals, let alone go deep in the competitive Western Conference. The additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford though give the Mavericks something they haven’t always had in previous years — high-calibre depth. It means the burden shouldn’t always be on Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving to produce the kind of big games that Dallas previously needed to even stand a chance in the post-season. Whether it is enough to compete with well-drilled teams that seem to have a better understanding of their identity remains to be seen.
MAKING UP THE NUMBERS
7. Sacramento Kings (34-26)
The Kings were one of the big surprise packets last season and currently sit seventh in the Western Conference. In a lot of ways, not a whole lot has changed for Sacramento, who entered the All-Star break with a 31-23 record, which was identical to where the franchise stood at the same point last season. The biggest difference? The West is much more competitive this season and so while the Kings again look like a solid playoff team, it is hard to see them making the jump to genuine contender status this year. Another first-round series defeat or even a play-in tournament exit looks the likeliest option.
9. Los Angeles Lakers (34-29)
The Lakers will go as far as LeBron James and Anthony Davis can take them. Although a repeat of last year’s charge to the Western Conference Finals may be tough to come by if Los Angeles is again forced to win its way through the play-in tournament. That may be the reality for LeBron and co. though as they face the fifth toughest remaining schedule according to Tankathon, having to play the Timberwolves and Bucks twice in the run home. A resounding win over the Thunder though, even if it just one game, proves the Lakers could be a problem in the playoffs with the right match-up. But it is hard to buy them sustaining that level of play to get all the way to the Finals. Of course, James’ potential impending free agency status looms large but even if the Lakers aren’t able to replicate last season’s post-season run their main selling point will be the trade assets they have up their sleeve this summer. That will somewhat soften the blow if the Lakers make an early exit.
All hail the King! LeBron reaches 40k! | 00:37
10. Golden State Warriors (32-28)
Playing against the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics is one way to get a sense for just how close — or far away — you are from contending for a championship this season. And in the case of the Warriors, it was a timely wake-up call as Golden State was blown out by 52 points. This was a Warriors team that had won 13 of their past 16 games to potentially emerge as a championship dark horse that may have been better placed with the above three teams. From Draymond Green’s welcomed return and the associated re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins to Klay Thompson embracing his new role after moving to the bench, these Warriors looked to be building something. They still could be. The Celtics are just that good that sometimes you’re going to have losses like the one Golden State had on Monday. But it was a reminder of just how far ahead the better teams in the league are this season, including the Nuggets who overcame a slow start to finish well on top of the Warriors last week. Golden State currently sits in 10th in the West, meaning they would be facing the Lakers in a do-or-die play-in tournament game if the season stopped right now.
SHOULD BE PLANNING FOR NEXT YEAR
11. Utah Jazz (28-34)
It has been a rough recent stretch for the Jazz, who have dropped eight of their last nine games to fall to 11th in the West and it is hard to see them making up enough ground to challenge either the Lakers or Warriors for a spot in the play-in tournament. The Jazz have the worst defensive rating (123.3) in the league over the last 15 games, punished in size mismatches while Lauri Markkanen hasn’t been able to keep up the kind of production that had Utah moving up the standings earlier in the season.
12. Houston Rockets (26-34)
Like the Jazz, the Rockets just haven’t been consistent enough to anticipate the kind of run they need to make in the next month to qualify for the play-in tournament. Although the fact Houston is even on the playoff bubble has to be a positive given expectations were relatively low for the rebuilding Rockets this season. The focus in the summer though will be working out how Houston approaches the next stage of its rebuild, whether it is continuing to patiently develop its young core or package some of its assets for a star player via trade.
BasketBRAWL: Butler ejected in NOLA | 01:10
ALREADY PLANNING FOR NEXT YEAR
13. Memphis Grizzlies (21-41)
The Grizzlies were already up against it before the season tipped off, with superstar guard Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games. Memphis looked to be building something when Morant returned but it was short-lived as the 24-year-old was later ruled out for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. The injury list keeps growing too, with Ziaire Williams And Derrick Rose the latest names set for time on the sidelines. Bring on next year.
14. Portland Trail Blazers (17-43)
Another team that was expected to be sitting down the bottom of the Western Conference after trading Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks. Although the Blazers didn’t enter full-scale rebuilding mode, holding onto players like Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams at the trade deadline. Where they fit in the team’s long-term plans remains to be seen but Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are still key building blocks for the future.
15. San Antonio Spurs (13-48)
This season was all about the Victor Wembanyama experience, with the No.1 overall pick firmly in Rookie of the Year calculations. Wembanyama has averaged 20.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals in his rookie season. Finding a starting point guard still remains the likely next move for the Spurs, who have leaned on Tre Jones to fill the void left by Dejounte Murray for the time being.
PLAYOFF SERIES IF SEASON ENDED TODAY
(1) Timberwolves vs. (8) Play-In Winner
(2) Thunder vs. (7) Play-In Winner
(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Suns
(4) Clippers vs. (5) Pelicans
Play-in tournament
(7) Kings vs. (8) Mavericks
(9) Lakers vs. (10) Warriors
#Western #Conference #Eastern #Conference #team #sits #playoff #picture #bracket #records
