Impact of a Draft Lottery on recent AFL Drafts analysis, NBA draft lottery odds, Harley Reid to Hawthorn, latest news

The NBA holds a Draft Lottery for the 14 teams that missed the playoffs one month out from the draft.

Teams with the three worst regular season records each have a 14 per cent chance at the No. 1 draft pick.

So, what would happen to the AFL landscape if one month out from the draft, teams headed to Marvel Stadium for the AFL Draft Lottery?

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Let’s set out the rules for this complicated hypothetical. Firstly, teams would not know where a compensation pick (CP) falls until after the lottery and, while Father/Son, Academy and NGA bids are still eligible, club bids will be ignored from recent drafts because bids are not relative to win-loss records.

Trades will also still be completed (when they make sense). For example, the 2022 four-team mega-trade has to be ignored because it was late in the trade period and GWS traded up to get Aaron Cadman, but that same trade would net them Pick 3 in this hypothetical, NBA-tied Lottery (so they wouldn’t have done it).

Let’s review recent drafts using the NBA Draft Lottery results of the respective years. So if you’re a Hawks fan get excited – because just like Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs, you had the third-worst record in 2023.

NBA LOTTERY ODDS (2019-23)

1 (worst record). 14.00% of No.1 pick; 2. 14.00%; 3. 14.00%; 4. 12.50%; 5. 10.50%; 6. 9.00%; 7. 7.50%; 8. 6.00%; 9. 4.50%; 10. 3.00%; 11. 2.00%; 12. 1.50%; 13. 1.00%; 14. 0.50%

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2023?

In the 2023 NBA Lottery, the San Antonio Spurs – who finished with the third-worst record – clinched the No.1 pick, while the team with the worst record, Detroit, slid all the way to 5th despite a 14 per cent chance at No. 1.

In short, look away now West Coast fans.

Original 2023 AFL Draft

1. West Coast – Harley Reid

2. North Melbourne – Colby McKercher

X. Gold Coast – Jed Walter – ignored (Academy bid)

X. North Melbourne – Zane Duursma – ignored (Compensation pick)

3. Hawthorn – Nick Watson

4. Western Bulldogs (tied to Gold Coast) – Ryley Sanders

5. Melbourne (tied to Fremantle) – Caleb Windsor

6. Adelaide (via GWS, tied to Richmond*) – Dan Curtin

X. Gold Coast – Ethan Read – ignored (Academy bid)

7. Essendon (tied to Geelong) – Nate Caddy

8. Geelong (tied to Essendon) – Connor O’Sullivan

9. GWS (via Adelaide) – Phoenix Gothard

10. Melbourne (tied to Bulldogs) – Koltyn Tholstrup

*Traded to GWS for Jacob Hopper; on-traded to Adelaide in Curtin trade

Lottery-affected 2023 AFL Draft order (using same year’s NBA Draft Lottery results)

1. Hawthorn (were 3)

2. Western Bulldogs (4)

3. Melbourne (5)

4. North Melbourne (2)

5. North Melbourne (CP)

6. West Coast (1)

7. Richmond (6)

8. Geelong (7)

9. Essendon (8)

10. Adelaide (9)

Hawthorn, which finished with the third-worst record, would be this year’s San Antonio equivalent in what would inevitably be known as the Harley Reid Lottery.

The Hawks went into the lottery with Pick 3 and left with Pick 1 and a generational talent while West Coast, which managed just three wins for the season, landed Pick 6 (thanks to North’s compensation pick).

The Eagles would miss out on Reid and likely select local talent Dan Curtin at 6.

Crucially for West Coast, it remained ahead of the Giants’ Pick 7, which eventually became the Curtin-keen Crows’ Pick 7 on draft night. The Crows would instead have to trade with North Melbourne, meaning GWS stays at No.7 – which it received for Jacob Hopper in 2022.

Melbourne’s Pick 3 came from Fremantle in the 2022 Luke Jackson trade, allowing the Dees to select Zane Duursma, who lined up at Casey during the VFL season and were known to hold interest in.

North Melbourne’s Free Agency compensation pick fell to fifth, as it follows the Roos’ first selection of the night.

The big question surrounds the Western Bulldogs’ Pick 2, which was part of a points-influenced trade by the Suns ahead of the draft.

Gold Coast traded Pick 4, 46, 51 and a future third-round selection to the Bulldogs as it looked to stash points for its Academy bids, but with Pick 4 (2034 points) becoming Pick 2 (2517 points) after the lottery, it either opens up more offers or allowed the Suns to easily take Academy prospect Jed Walter.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2023 AFL Draft

1. Hawthorn – Harley Reid

2. Gold Coast – Jed Walter (since they didn’t trade it in our scenario)

3. Melbourne – Zane Duursma

4. North Melbourne – Colby McKercher

5. North Melbourne – Ryle Sanders

6. West Coast – Dan Curtin

7. GWS – Nick Watson

8. Gold Coast – Ethan Read (matching Geelong’s bid)

9. Geelong – Nate Caddy

10. Essendon – Caeb Windsor

11. Adelaide – Connor O’Sullivan

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022?

Orlando (second-worst record) clinched the No. 1 pick and drafted Paolo Banchero. The Kings jumped from Pick 7 to Pick 4 and took Keegan Murray.

Original 2022 AFL Draft

1. GWS (tied to NM*) – Aaron Cadman

X. Brisbane – Will Ashcroft (F/S)

2. North Melbourne (tied to WC*) – Harry Sheezel

3. North Melbourne (tied to GWS*) – George Wardlaw

4. Essendon – Elijah Tsatas

5. Gold Coast (tied to Adelaide**) – Bailey Humphrey

6. Hawthorn – Cam Mackenzie

7. Geelong (tied to GCS***) – Jhye Clark

8. West Coast (tied to PA*) – Reuben Ginbey

9. St Kilda – Mattaes Phillipou

10. Carlton – Ollie Hollands

*Part of the four-team mega-trade (WC, NM, PA, GWS)

**Traded from Adelaide for Izak Rankine

***Traded from Gold Coast in Jack Bowes trade

Lottery-affected 2022 AFL Draft order (before trades)

1. West Coast (2)

2. Essendon (4)

3. North Melbourne (1)

4. Gold Coast (7)

5. GWS (3)

6. Adelaide (5)

7. Hawthorn (6)

8. Port Adelaide (8)

9. St Kilda (9)

10. Carlton (10)

Gold Coast’s Pick 4 (initially Pick 7) likely goes to Geelong, part of the Jack Bowes salary dump.

Luckily for the Suns, they would end up receiving Pick 6 from Adelaide for Izak Rankine.

A significant hypothetical with the 2022 Lottery is its impact on the Giants, who initially traded up from Pick 3 to Pick 1 in a four-team mega-deal.

Should GWS directly deal with West Coast to take Aaron Cadman, and allow the Eagles to take Reuben Ginbey at Pick 5, Jason Horne-Francis and Willie Rioli could be left stranded with their respective clubs.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2022 AFL Draft (with some phantom trades)

1. GWS (via trade with WC) – Aaron Cadman

2. Brisbane Lions – Will Ashcroft (matching F/S bid)

3. Essendon – Harry Sheezel

4. North Melbourne – George Wardlaw

5. Geelong (via GCS) – Elijah Tsatas

6. West Coast (via trade with GWS) – Reuben Ginbey

7. Gold Coast (via Adelaide) – Bailey Humphrey

8. Hawthorn – Jhye Clark

9. Port Adelaide – Mattaes Phillipou

10. St Kilda – Cam Mackenzie

11. Carlton – Ollie Hollands

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2021?

Detroit had the second-worst record but landed the No. 1 pick en route to selecting Cade Cunningham. Aussie Josh Giddey headed to OKC as the Thunder dropped two places to Pick 6.

Original 2021 AFL Draft

1. North Melbourne – Jason Horne-Francis

X. Western Bulldogs – Sam Darcy (F/S)

2. GWS Giants (tied to COL) – Finn Callaghan

X. Collingwood – Nick Daicos (F/S)

3. Gold Coast – Mac Andrew

4. Adelaide – Josh Rachele

5. Hawthorn – Josh Ward

6. Fremantle (tied to CAR*) – Jye Amiss

7. Richmond – Josh Gibcus

8. Fremantle – Neil Erasmus

*Traded from CAR for Adam Cerra, likely still happens post-lottery

Lottery-affected 2021 AFL Draft order

1. GWS (2) (via COL)

2. North Melbourne (1)

3. Hawthorn (5)

4. Richmond (7)

5. Gold Coast (3)

6. Adelaide (4)

7. Fremantle (6)

8. Fremantle (7)

GWS and Collingwood traded picks one year out from the draft so the Giants, who made it to a semi final in 2021, also boast the No. 1 pick in the draft thanks to some lottery luck.

Given GWS did not bid on Nick Daicos in the official draft, and Jason Horne-Francis was open to moving interstate at the time, we can assume the Giants take Horne-Francis at Pick 1.

Richmond moved up from Pick 7 to Pick 4 (before bids) allowing the Tigers to select another GWV Rebel they were keen on in Ben Hobbs, over Josh Gibcus.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2021 AFL Draft

1. GWS (via COL) – Jason Horne-Francis

2. North Melbourne – Finn Callaghan

3. Western Bulldogs – Sam Darcy (matching Hawthorn’s bid)

4. Collingwood – Nick Daicos (matching Hawthorn’s bid)

5. Hawthorn – Josh Ward

6. Richmond – Ben Hobbs

7. Gold Coast – Mac Andrew

8. Adelaide – Josh Rachele

9. Fremantle – Jye Amiss

10. Fremantle – Neil Erasmus

Here’s where things start getting a little crazy…

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020?

Charlotte (pre-Lottery 8th) and Chicago (pre-Lottery 7th) both jumped into the top four.

Original 2020 AFL Draft

X. Western Bulldogs – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (NGA)

1. Adelaide – Riley Thilthorpe

2. North Melbourne – Will Phillips

3. Sydney – Logan McDonald

X. Sydney – Braeden Campbell (A)

4. Hawthorn – Denver Grainger-Barrass

5. Gold Coast – Elijah Hollands

6. Essendon – Nik Cox

X. Essendon – Archie Perkins (compensation pick for Joe Daniher)

7. Essendon – Zach Reid

8. Adelaide (tied to GWS*) – Luke Pedlar

9. GWS – Tanner Bruhn

*Involved in 2019 pick swap trade

Lottery-affected 2020 AFL Draft order

1. Sydney (3)

2. Adelaide (1)

3. Adelaide (8)

4. Essendon (7)

5. Essendon (CP)

6. North Melbourne (2)

7. Hawthorn (4)

8. Gold Coast (5)

9. Essendon (6)

10. GWS (9)

This was the final year in which clubs had unlimited access to NGA products which sadly blocks us, and the Swans, from being hypothetically blessed with a Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Buddy Franklin forward line.

The Bombers shot up from Pick 7 to land Pick 4, meaning their Joe Daniher compensation pick came at Pick 5. Adelaide moved from No. 8 to No.3 to boast two top-three selections.

Elijah Hollands came into the draft neck-and-neck with Will Phillips in the midfield rankings with the Crows likely tossing up between the two at Pick 4.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2020 AFL Draft

1. Western Bulldogs – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (matching Sydney’s bid)

2. Sydney – Logan McDonald

3. Adelaide – Riley Thilthorpe

4. Adelaide – Elijah Hollands

5. Sydney – Braeden Campbell (matching Essendon’s bid)

6. Essendon – Will Phillips

7. Essendon – Nik Cox

8. North Melbourne – Denver Grainger-Barras

9. Hawthorn – Archie Perkins

10. Gold Coast – Zach Reid

11. Essendon – Tanner Bruhn

OK now things get a LOT crazy…

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2019?

New Orleans came into the lottery sitting seventh in the rankings, before shocking the world and landing the No. 1 pick, Zion Williamson. Memphis (33-49) shared the exact same record as New Orleans and also jumped up six spots from Pick 8 to Pick 2 to secure Ja Morant.

Original 2019 AFL Draft

1. Gold Coast – Matt Rowell

X. Gold Coast – Noah Anderson (CP)

2. Melbourne – Luke Jackson

3. GWS (tied to CAR via ADEL*) – Lachie Ash

4. Sydney – Dylan Stephens

5. Adelaide (tied to St Kilda via GWS**) – Fischer McAsey

6. Fremantle – Hayden Young

7. Fremantle (tied to NM via MEL***) – Caleb Serong

X. Fremantle – Liam Henry (NGA)

X. GWS – Tom Green (A)

8. Gold Coast (tied to ADEL via CAR****) – Sam Flanders

9. Melbourne (tied to PA via STK, FREM*****) – Kysaiah Pickett

10. Hawthorn – Will Day

11. Port Adelaide (tied to ESS via GWS, STK) – Miles Bergman

12. Western Bulldogs – Cody Weightman

*Traded from CAR to ADEL in 2018 Liam Stocker trade, ADEL traded to GWS for Pick 5 and 2020 1st rounder

**Traded from STK to GWS; on-traded to ADEL for Pick 3

***Traded from NM to MEL for Pick 26, 50; traded to FREM for 9, 28

****Traded from ADEL to CAR in 2018 Liam Stocker trade; on-traded to GCS for 17, 22

*****Traded from PA to STK in Ryder trade (inc. #11)

Lottery-affected 2019 AFL Draft order (including trades)

1. Fremantle (7) (NM-FREM trade to be rescinded, NM takes ownership)

2. Gold Coast (8) (CAR-GCS trade to be rescinded, CAR takes ownership)

3. Gold Coast (CP) (comes after GCS first selection)

4. Gold Coast (1)

5. Port Adelaide (11) (STK-PA trade to be rescinded, GWS takes ownership)

6. Melbourne (2)

7. GWS (3) (tied to CARL, Adelaide no longer trades to GWS)

8. Sydney (4)

9. Adelaide (5) (tied to STK, GWS does not trade to Adelaide)

10. Fremantle (6)

11. Melbourne (9) (STK-PA trade to be rescinded)

12. Hawthorn (10)

13. Western Bulldogs (12)

Fremantle (13th) had a 7.5% chance of landing Pick 1 with Pick 7 but, the only reason the Dockers ever had Pick 7 was because Melbourne received it in a pick swap with North Melbourne.

North Melbourne would not be trading that selection if it had been Pick 1, meaning we’re ready to call Matt Rowell a Shinboner.

This is where the butterfly effect goes crazy. It’s almost impossible to put together an accurate lottery order for this draft.

Carlton’s pick swap with Gold Coast would also be rescinded, with lottery luck rewarding the Blues with Pick 2.

The Suns would still end up with Pick 3 and 4 (compensation pick), but the chaos continues shortly after.

The only reason Port Adelaide has Pick 5 is because St Kilda, which received it a year prior from Essendon, traded it to the Giants as they looked to move up to secure Lachie Ash.

The Giants likely still orchestrate a trade for St Kilda’s Pick 5, but they would feel comfortable grabbing Ash at No. 5, and cannot trade with Adelaide anymore as the Crows slid to No. 7.

To add even more confusion, if there was an AFL Draft Lottery, we would expect finals-playing teams to be ineligible for the draft, meaning this Essendon-tied pick cannot rocket from Pick 11 to Pick 5 anyway.

In short, this hypothetical AFL world is getting awfully complicated.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2019 AFL Draft

1. North Melbourne – Matt Rowell

2. Carlton – Noah Anderson

3. Gold Coast – Luke Jackson

4. Gold Coast – Hayden Young (compensation pick)

5. GWS – Lachie Ash

6. GWS – Tom Green (matching Melbourne’s bid)

7. Fremantle – Liam Henry (matching Melbourne’s bid)

8. Melbourne – Dylan Stephens

9. Adelaide – Fischer McAsey

10. Sydney – Sam Flanders

11. GWS – Kysaiah Pickett

12. Fremantle – Caleb Serong

13. Melbourne – Cody Weightman

14. Hawthorn – Will Day

15. Western Bulldogs – Miles Bergman

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2018?

It was the final year in which the team with the worst record had the best odds (25%) to win the No. 1 pick as Phoenix selected DeAndre Ayton. Sacramento was the big winner, jumping from Pick 7 to Pick 2.

Original 2018 AFL Draft

1. Carlton – Sam Walsh

2. Gold Coast – Jack Lukosius

X. Gold Coast – Izak Rankine (CP)

3. St Kilda – Max King

4. Port Adelaide (tied to BRIS*) – Connor Rozee

5. Gold Coast (tied to FREM** via MEL) – Ben King

6. Western Bulldogs – Bailey Smith

X. North Melbourne – Tarryn Thomas (NGA)

7. Adelaide – Chayce Jones

X. Sydney – Nick Blakey (A)

8. GWS (tied to ESS***) – Jye Caldwell

9. Port Adelaide – Zak Butters

*BRIS traded to PA in Sam Mayes trade, also involving Pick 5

**Traded five times, likely still lands at Gold Coast (FRE > PA > BRIS > FRE > GC)

***ESS traded to GWS for Dylan Shiel

Lottery-affected 2018 AFL Draft order

1. Carlton (1)

2. Adelaide (7)

3. Port Adelaide (4)

4. Gold Coast (2)

5. Gold Coast (CP)

6. St Kilda (3)

7. Gold Coast (5)

8. Western Bulldogs (6)

9. GWS (8)

10. Port Adelaide (9)

Carlton finished with a 2-20 record and took home the No. 1 pick with its 25 per cent odds, while Adelaide (12-10, 12th) took the place of Sacramento and landed Pick 2 in an SA-friendly draft.

After Carlton selects Sam Walsh at No. 1, you would expect the Crows to take Jack Lukosius, with Port Adelaide on the clock next and forced to toss up between Izak Rankine and Connor Rozee.

At the time, Pick 3 may have been too early for Rozee, and it is important to remember these are phantom drafts, not re-drafts – so welcome to Alberton, Izak Rankine. That leaves the Suns to take both King brothers.

In a toss up between Rozee and Bailey Smith, St Kilda takes diehard Saints fan Rozee at Pick 7, meaning Gold Coast is forced to overlook Smith due to homesickness risks and take Jye Caldwell. So Smith gets to the Bulldogs anyway.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2018 AFL Draft

1. Carlton – Sam Walsh

2. Adelaide – Jack Lukosius

3. Port Adelaide – Izak Rankine

4. Gold Coast – Max King

5. Gold Coast – Ben King

6. Sydney – Nick Blakey (matching St Kilda’s bid)

7. St Kilda – Connor Rozee

8. Gold Coast – Jye Caldwell

9. North Melbourne – Tarryn Thomas (matching Western Bulldogs’ bid)

10. Western Bulldogs – Bailey Smith

11. GWS – Chayce Jones

12. Port Adelaide – Jackson Hately

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2014?

We’ve skipped ahead for one last bonus year because it was so crazy. Cleveland scored the No.1 selection despite holding just 1.70% odds, selecting Andrew Wiggins who would eventually end up at Minnesota. All franchises ranked from 1-8 ahead of the lottery fell back one position in the draft.

Original 2014 AFL Draft

1. St Kilda – Paddy McCartin

2. Melbourne – Christian Petracca

X. Melbourne – Angus Brayshaw (CP)

3. GWS – Jarrod Pickett

4. Collingwood (tied to BRIS*) – Jordan De Goey

5. GWS (via WB**) – Caleb Marchbank

6. GWS (via CAR**) – Paul Ahern

7. Gold Coast – Peter Wright

8. Collingwood – Darcy Moore (F/S)***

9. Geelong (tied to ADEL****) – Nakia Cockatoo

10. West Coast – Liam Duggan

*Traded to COLL in Dayne Beams trade

**WB traded to GWS in Tom Boyd trade, CAR traded to GWS in Whiley trade

***In 2014 you could match a F/S bid with your next selection.

****Just a heads up, I’m ignoring this trade, thank me later Crows fans.

Lottery-affected 2014 AFL Draft order

1. Adelaide (9)

2. St Kilda (1)

3. Melbourne (2)

4. Melbourne (CP)

5. GWS (3)

6. Collingwood (4) (tied to BRIS)

7. Western Bulldogs (5)

8. Carlton (6)

9. Gold Coast (7)

10. Collingwood (8)

11. West Coast (10)

Adelaide originally traded Picks 9 and 46 for Geelong’s 15 and 36 one month out from the draft but, following the lottery, it is safe to assume the Crows are not making that trade now they hold Pick 1.

It’s believed 17 out of 18 clubs would have taken Christian Petracca at No. 1, which means St Kilda still lands Paddy McCartin and Melbourne’s Gus (Angus Brayshaw) and Gawny podcast continues to thrive in this hypothetical timeline.

Phantom Draft of lottery-affected 2014 AFL Draft

1. Adelaide – Christia Petracca

2. St Kilda – Paddy McCartin

3. Melbourne – Angus Brayshaw

4. Melbourne – Jordan De Goey

5. GWS – Jarrod Pickett

6. Collingwood – Caleb Marchbank

7. Western Bulldogs – Peter Wright

8. Carlton – Paul Ahern

9. Gold Coast – Liam Duggan

10. Collingwood – Darcy Moore (Matching Bulldogs’ bid)

11. West Coast – Nakia Cockatoo