Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans preview, kick-off time, season preview, club culture, Clayton Oliver, predictions, premiership window, drug issues

Arguably no AFL team is more fascinating heading into the 2024 season than Melbourne.

Reeling already from a second consecutive straight sets exit from the finals, the Dees were beset by a myriad of off-field issues that extended throughout virtually the entire off-season.

Clayton Oliver’s wellbeing and footy future were both under intense scrutiny, news of Joel Smith’s suspension amid a Sports Integrity Australia investigation broke and, most recently, the medically-forced retirement of premiership star Angus Brayshaw.

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The Oliver and Smith storylines saw coach Simon Goodwin and CEO Gary Pert front an extended SEN radio interview in October, during which Pert made the bold claim the culture at the Dees is “the best I’ve seen in 40 years”.

Melbourne looked in ominous touch in a pre-season hitout against Carlton at Ikon Park, but all eyes now turn to Thursday night’s season-opening clash with Sydney at the SCG (live on Fox Footy and Kayo from 6.30pm AEDT).

Adding to the fascination around the Dees is the spectrum of opinions on them.

Some believe they’re set to tumble down the ladder as a result of their off-field struggles, while others are tipping a backs-to-the-wall mentality may help them finally unlock what many believe should be a premiership dynasty.

Former St Kilda star Leigh Montagna falls into the latter category, bullish about the club’s potential in 2024.

“I’m on with Melbourne. When you look at everything in regards to their list profile, the way they play, I know there’s been a lot of talk about the off-field stuff over summer, but my understanding is they’ve never been connected as a playing group (until now),” he said on AFL 360 on Wednesday night.

“This has actually helped them get connected, draw the line, understand what they stand for and what they’re going to accept.”

Despite the Dees’ winless finals run since the breakthrough 2021 premiership in Perth, Montagna notes the Dees’ consistency as a side is impressive.

Over the last three seasons, the Dees have been outside the top four for a total of two weeks. It hasn’t converted to finals success since the flag, but they remain one of the most imposing sides in the competition by the numbers.

For those who are not all in on the Dees, there are two issues: The off-season impact and the forward line.

“Their forward line is still their Achilles heel,” premiership Cat Cameron Mooney told foxfooty.com.au ahead of the season.

“That premiership year worked really well for them, but they just don’t really have someone or two blokes that you sit there and go they’re going to kick between 80 and 100 goals between them.

“(Jacob) van Rooyen is going to be a really good player but he’s just a kid. (Tom) McDonald just can’t put it on the field, (Ben) Brown is probably done. It’s a huge question mark.”

The Dees to their credit have not sat idly, recruiting Shane McAdam in the trade period and drafting Caleb Windsor, with both players boasting attributes that could help strengthen the mid-forward connection.

Still, the doubters would argue considerable hope is being placed on the return of Harrison Petty, who showed only (albeit impressive) a brief period of high-performance as a key forward after being swung from defence.

Melbourne last year dug its heels in when the prospect of Adelaide swooping on the 24-year-old emerged. It’s easy to understand why, given the role he would have to play if the Dees are to make another genuine tilt at a flag.

Others, like former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon, believes the damage has been done over the off-season.

“I called them to be knocked out in straight-sets two years ago. They’re just a team I don’t feel have got the stability to maintain that method or form,” Dixon told foxfooty.com.au.

“I think the internal stuff, when you’ve been at club land you’ve got no idea the impact it has on you as a group and it can be emotionally draining without you even realising it.

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“I think the timing of it … the top eight doesn’t really change from Round 8 normally, so it’s all about what counts early. And I feel the Dees are miles behind.

“They have wasted a (dynasty) opportunity. That sort of era – the Hawthorn’s, the Richmond’s – these teams capitalise and got their two or three premierships. Melbourne should’ve walked up and had two and maybe squeezed three. But they’ve only got one.”

Taking a glass half-full approach, Montagna said declarations of the Demons’ demise have been greatly exaggerated – as has the focus on their weaknesses.

“They were second for points against (last season), we know they’re elite defensively,” Montagna said.

“People forget they were still sixth in points for. They only averaged three points a game less than Collingwood. It’s not like this team can’t score.

“They’ve had their troubles converting inside 50 and having shots at goal late in those two finals, but they had those games both in their grasp for portions of it, if they win one or two of them we’re talking differently.”

Perhaps a microcosm of Melbourne is its midfield star Oliver, who boasts immense talent and output but has also gotten in his own way in recent times.

After an off-season of intense focus, Oliver has gone from a trade target and AFL exile to sealing a spot in the Opening Round side.

It is a call the Dees would’ve sweated over.

For some, Oliver returning to the senior side just in time for the season is a case of ‘rules for some’, with concerns over the message it sends to the rest of the playing group given the tough stance the club had held until ultimately naming him in the side.

For others, it is a sign of Melbourne’s culture working, with tough love having led to a significant change in Oliver and a potentially even better version of a player who will already go down as one of the club’s best.

“I’m still looking at the positive of Clayton Oliver … what if he comes back a better version of Clayton Oliver as a teammate, as a player?” Montagna said.

“That is still possible and we’ve seen it with other players that have matured after going through some things.

“Still just 26 years of age, he could have an enormous season that might catch everybody by surprise … I think there’s no reason why they’re not going to be a contender again.”

Like most aspects of predicting the Dees’ fortunes in 2024, it’s all a matter of perspective.