Reaction, results, wrap, highlights, Grand Finalists start 0-2, Essendon Archie Perkins, Richmond injuries

The year’s first full weekend of footy only had a few surprises – but they were right at the top of the league.

Collingwood and Brisbane’s 0-2 dilemma, Essendon’s big draft call finally has liftoff, the Tigers’ fresh headaches and much more.

The big issues from Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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HORRIFIC HISTORY BOTH GRAND FINALISTS FACE

Clearly, you don’t want to lose two games in a row at any point. And it has almost become a meme how much the AFL world discusses teams which start the year 0-2.

But that is because it’s a bad thing to do. Especially when you were really good the year before.

For the first time in 128 AFL seasons, both reigning Grand Finalists are 0-2. (Some of those seasons didn’t have reigning Grand Finalists, especially the first one, but you get the point). Even more weirdly, they’re 0-2 after Round 1.

Collingwood got there first, following up a disappointing but at least explainable loss to GWS – it was on the road, and goalkicking made the margin way way worse than it should’ve been – with a much worse defeat at the hands of an understrength Sydney, on the night they unfurled their premiership flag.

The Magpies are the fifth reigning premier to start a season 0-2 in the AFL era; the other four, North Melbourne (2000), Sydney (2006), Hawthorn (2009) and Geelong (2023) all failed to defend the flag, the latter two failing to even make the finals.

Two nights later, Brisbane made the always-dangerous trek across the country to face a Fremantle side desperate to prove 2024 will be more like 2022 and not 2023; and after a fast start capitalising on a bunch of Dockers brain fades, once again conceded an eight-goal streak on route to defeat.

Since 2000, approximately 18% of teams who started the season 0-2 ended up qualifying for the finals. The majority of the 0-2 sides were just bad teams; some started surprisingly poorly and recovered. But another group started surprisingly poorly and never recovered.

All four losses recorded by the Magpies and Lions are excusable in a vacuum. Sure, Brisbane would rather have gone unbeaten at the Gabba, and giving up a 46-point lead is horrendous, but Carlton made a prelim last year and has high hopes this year. And the Lions nearly lost to Fremantle in the west last year already.

Collingwood is in a similar boat. The Swans and Giants are clearly pretty damn good, even if the margins were shockingly large in both losses. They weren’t banking on getting eight points from those games to make the top four – there are enough wins left on their fixture, if the Pies are as good as everyone thought they’d be.

But this all shows just how tight the competition is. Craig McRae said as much on Friday night, telling reporters: “We win three finals by under a goal, we’re not thinking that we’re miles ahead of anyone.”

The Magpies famously won a bunch of close games; the Lions took advantage of arguably the biggest home ground advantage in the league to bank their wins and make the top two. So if either side has dropped off 5 or 10 per cent, they can easily be caught by an enormous group of teams who can be really good on their day.

The AFL’s dream has always been that anyone can beat anyone on their day. And while you wouldn’t include North Melbourne or West Coast in that bunch, you can pretty much throw 16 teams into that group right now. Even Hawthorn, who knocked off both Brisbane and Collingwood last year, and Richmond, who nearly beat the Carlton side who just beat Brisbane.

So are the Magpies and Lions in a bit of trouble? Yes, especially since they play each other in Round 3. The Lions will be 0-2, having the bye next week, while the Magpies have a dangerous clash with another 2023 finalist in St Kilda.

Throw out the chances of a draw, and at least one of last year’s Grand Finalists will have three losses after Round 3. Just like Geelong did last year, if you’ll recall.

And being that far behind the eight-ball just makes things so much more difficult. You have to keep winning just to catch the leaders, exerting more energy which then hurts you at the pointy end of the season, instead of being able to cruise into September like so many of the Grand Finalists in recent years have done.

Both Collingwood and Brisbane are good enough to recover; they couldn’t have lost everything in the space of one shorter-than-usual summer. And just three years ago the Lions started 0-2 before a game against Collingwood, and were eventually 1-3, then making the top four anyway.

But the task is now that much harder.

(By the way, sorry for ignoring you Richmond, we know you’re 0-2 too. But you played better than either the Magpies or Lions did this weekend! So clearly you’re fine.)

SIGNS BOMBERS’ DRAFT CALL FINALLY POISED TO PAY OFF

Essendon fans have had to be patient with the club’s front-loaded 2020 draft haul.

But you sense that patience is about to be rewarded — at least with one of those three top-10 picks.

While Jake Stringer was enormous, arguably the most promising sign for Essendon fans during the Bombers’ win over Hawthorn on Saturday was the performance of Archie Perkins, who produced a career-best game playing purely as a midfielder.

Perkins opened up the game for the Bombers with two goals in a scintillating third term on his way to 24 disposals, 12 tackles and a team-high eight clearances for the match.

Most notably, his midfield role came without an on-ball contribution from Stringer and in the absence of Darcy Parish. The Bombers had 18 centre clearances to Hawthorn’s nine — and Perkins was responsible for a third of those.

Speaking to AFL Media post-game, Perkins said he was “certainly ready for that extra responsibility that comes with playing in the midfield and I think it will help me as a player to be around the ball more, grow my game from the contest”.

Essendon coach Brad Scott said Perkins can emulate Sydney superstar Isaac Heeney, but he wouldn’t commit to a permanent on-ball role.

He compared Perkins to Heeney over the debate around where the duo were best used, although he said the Bombers’ No. 9 pick still had a long way to go to catch up to the star Swan.

“I heard John Longmire talk about Isaac Heeney … he’s an All-Australian forward, but he’s clearly dominating through the midfield,” Scott said. “I think Isaac’s now 27 … Perks has got a fair way to go to sort of replicate what Isaac is doing, but he’s a similar type in terms of we really like him forward but we like him in the midfield too.

“We know Stringer can (play in the middle), we know (Jye Caldwell) and Perkins can do it … what we’re trying to do is build flexibility, so at different stages of the game we can pull different levers.”

The cruel irony of Perkins’ big performance was that fellow top-10 draftee Zach Reid – who had a strong summer after three luckless seasons – suffered another injury setback, although the club insists he was subbed out with ‘hamstring awareness’.

Scott said the Bombers still had confidence in Reid’s body and that the issue was “on the minor end” of the scale. Coincidentally, Reid’s injury forced Nik Cox – the third top-10 Bombers pick from the 2020 draft – deeper into defence.

But the Perkins promise was hard to ignore.

Since making his debut in 2021, the 21-year old has shown superstar glimpses without it it all coming together … so is 2024 the year we see that happen? Saturday afternoon was certainly a great start.

WHY TIGERS WOULD BE ‘RELUCTANT’ TO MOVE BALTA AMID ‘HEADACHES’… AND RECENT TRADE

It was the free agency move that drew minimal headlines last October. But Richmond sure could use Bigoa Nyuon right now in the wake of several defensive setbacks – and Noah Balta’s impressive outings forward of centre.

Fearing the worst knee diagnosis for Josh Gibcus, Richmond coach Adem Yze on Thursday night said it would be “gut-wrenching” to lose him for the entire season. That concern was realised on Friday when the Tigers confirmed Gibcus had ruptured his ACL.

It’s a major blow for Richmond considering Gibcus – Richmond’s sole top-10 draftee in the past decade – came into this season as arguably its most important defender, considering Dylan Grimes is in his twilight years and Balta’s move into the forward line.

Asked post-game how Richmond should cover Gibcus’ loss, triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt told Fox Footy: “It’s an interesting one, because you would’ve gone to Bigoa Nyuon – but unfortunately he’s been traded to North Melbourne.

“So maybe the Noah Balta experiment forward has to be put on the backburner for a little bit. He was unbelievable (against Carlton), but maybe he has to go back just out of necessity. You would like the luxury of playing him forward. Or do they try Jacob Koschitzke as a key back?

“There’s a few selection headaches for Adem Yze.”

Balta was the shining light for Richmond against Carlton with his efforts up forward and was strong behind the ball in the second half after Yze reluctantly made the switch following the injuries to Gibcus and Tylar Young (concussion), booting 3.0 from 23 disposals, nine marks, nine rebound 50s and eight intercepts.

“You’re really reluctant to move him from the forward line given the productivity that he’s had,” dual premiership Kangaroo David King told Fox Footy.

“He’s such a good competitor. He’s a rare talent.”

Riewoldt said the Tigers “would be kicking themselves” if they had to put Balta behind the ball.

“He’s a phenomenal athlete. The more footy he plays, he will continue to learn the nuances of AFL football,” Riewoldt said. “He’s got elite speed and that keeps him in the majority of contests and he’s incredibly strong.

“I think they would be kicking themselves if they moved him back. It might be out of necessity that he has to go back, but players like that who have those sorts of traits, they are so valuable in the forward line.

“Is he potentially the Charlie Curnow to Tom Lynch and the foil they could start to develop a relationship and become the two-headed monster that Carlton have at Richmond?”

‘SMOKY’ COLEMAN CHANCE NO ONE TIPPED PRE-SEASON

Of the 21 Fox Footy experts who were surveyed, none tipped Jesse Hogan to take out this year’s Coleman Medal.

But after 10 goals and two impressive Giants wins from two games, the star forward now looms as a “smoky” chance, according to dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna.

Hogan was the difference for the Giants in their big win over the Kangaroos on Saturday, with his size and marking ability too much to handle for the undermanned North Melbourne defenders. He booted six majors in the 39-point win and took seven marks inside forward 50.

The haul takes him to a total of 10 goals from the opening two games, starting 2024 in career-best form.

Hogan’s experience and output eases the pressure on the young players around him to bear the weight of expectations early in their careers.

After facing similar scrutiny earlier in his career, Hogan has been reborn at the Giants, with coach Adam Kingsley lauding the key forward’s ability to do the small things right in order to be rewarded.

“In his first two games he’s been outstanding for us,” Kingsley told the media after Saturday’s game. “The goals are a by-product of all of the stuff that he does for us and they’re probably the reward that he feels and that the outsiders see.

“But we value the other stuff as equally important as goals.”

Hogan kicked a career-high 49 goals last season with the Giants and is finding form to top that once again this season.

At his third club, the 28-year-old is hitting his prime and creating a dominant forward line alongside Jake Riccardi, Aaron Cadman and Callum Brown.

Speaking on Fox Footy on Saturday night, Montagna said any key forward would be “licking their lips” considering the Giants’ ball movement.

“Jesse Hogan proved himself last year as a bona fide star. He had his best year at 28 years of age and he’ll continue that form,” Montagna said.

“He could be a smoky for the Coleman Medal. I think he’ll kick 60-plus goals.”

Triple Coleman Medallist Jack Riewoldt said Hogan was “just dominating the air” inside 50.

“He’s always been a pretty prodigious player in the air, but he just looks like he’s loving the way the Giants are playing,” Riewoldt told Fox Footy.

“You only have to look at the Giants’ list to see star-studded ball users right around the ground. He’s dominating critical one-on-ones and he’s doing work to get behind his opponents where he’s reaping the rewards.”

2024 ‘NORTHBALL’ REALITIES LAID BARE

While some of North Melbourne’s senior players have declared they’re sick of finishing near the bottom of the ladder, it’s hard to see them escaping that group in 2024, considering the Roos have the youngest and least experienced list in the competition this season.

But the glimpse on Saturday night provided of the new ‘Northball’ style, as well as the array of young talented players on display, suggested the Kangaroos will at least have a crack – and even be fun to watch most weeks this year.

The Roos ran into a red-hot Giants outfit at Engie Stadium, suffering a 39-point loss. But it was a gallant and spirited performance.

Despite the 39-point differential, the Roos still put 82 points on the board — yet conceded 121 points to the Giants.

It’s a scoreline, you sense, we’ll see a lot in North Melbourne games this year.

“I think they’ve just got to release the shackles a little bit and play some exciting football and get the youngsters going and the build the defence as it comes — a little bit like what Hawthorn have done,” dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna told Fox Footy on Saturday night. “Sam Mitchell has let them play, kick a really good score but they’ve got some work to do defensively.

“I think North Melbourne will be in a really similar situation.”

Alastair Clarkson’s troops during the pre-season unleashed, as George Wardlaw dubbed it, ‘Northball’ – a speedy, direct and aggressive offensive approach the club hopes will excite fans and, hopefully, sneak a few wins.

There were signs of it against the Giants, with North a few times able to link up efficiently on transition. The Roos also won the clearance count and still managed 46 inside 50s. Recent draftees Colby McKercher and Zane Duursma took to AFL level with aplomb, Tristan Xerri shone in the ruck, Nick Larkey kicked three goals and Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tom Powell and Harry Sheezel found a mountain of the ball.

So there were positives.

But the Giants were on another level — and conjured a whopping 36 scoring shots from just 60 inside 50s.

“We need to be better defensively than that,” North coach Alastair Clarkson said post-match.

Clarkson said he was proud of his team for “hanging in there”, but added: “The whole footy world would’ve seen the class difference between the two sides

“Their best six or eight players on the ground were all guys have been playing AFL footy for eight to 10 years,” he said.

“We know we’ve got to roll our sleeves us and get to work, but it was encouraging we found a way to score and found a way on numerous occasions to challenge them … we’ve got some growth as a side to come.”

WELCOME BACK TO FOOTY, DIMMA…

Phew.

An all-too-familiar feeling crept into the pits of Damien Hardwick’s stomach late Saturday night, but he and his Gold Coast Suns were allowed to exhale.

After a second-half hiccup against Richmond in their season opener, and nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Adelaide on Saturday, the Suns – relievingly – emerge undefeated after their season’s first fortnight.

“Welcome back to the stresses of coaching, ‘Dimma’,” chuckled North Melbourne champion David King on Fox Footy.

They’re the very same stresses Hardwick became plenty accustomed to during his up-and-down tenure at Punt Road.

The Suns led the Crows by as many as 36 points early in the final term, before a late flurry of goals from Adelaide livewires Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine got the Suns’ hearts racing.

“What a relief. That’s the first time he’s smiled in 30 minutes,” said Hawthorn champion Dermott Brereton after the sounding of the final siren.

“It’s a great win by the Suns. (They) set it up early, they handled the conditions better.”

Gold Coast laid the foundations for their triumph early, restricting the Crows to a lone goal at half-time — consigning them to their second-worst all-time score at a main change.

It was much of the same in the second half before Adelaide stormed home with a wet sail, kicking five goals to Gold Coast’s one in the fourth stanza.

As was the case against the Tigers the previous weekend, the Suns let their foot off the gas for a decent portion of the second half of play.

“To Adelaide’s credit, to be honest, they came back in that last quarter,” Suns co-captain Touk Miller told Fox Footy post-game.

“Anyone can score at any time, you can score four goals in four minutes if you need. You feel like you’re always on edge.

“But, yeah, four points is four points, but we definitely had to be a bit tighter in that last quarter.

“Obviously, we’re still tweaking the game plan, working under ‘Dimma’ and things aren’t going to be perfect – like you saw tonight.

“But, when you can get away with a win like that, under these types of conditions, yeah, it puts a smile on all the fans’ faces.”

As Miller says, imperfection should be the expectation in these early stages of the ‘Dimma’ era in Carrara, but winning is ultimately how Hardwick and Co. will be judged.

While Gold Coast’s pair of victories have comprised impressive patches as well as shortfalls, on the whole, this young brigade appears to be making considerable strides towards contention.

But, you get the sense those “stresses” planted all over Hardwick’s face in the waning stages of Saturday night will continue to rear their heads throughout a trying season for the young Suns.